Tennis · resolved market
Francavilla: Gustavo Heide vs August Holmgren
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4a9b153987e1a45e56669743892d65d1c52dafebba6d0e799bb709a63921ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Gustavo Heideof Gustavo Heide, August Holmgren
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0da…f3f0backed August Holmgren | 11c | 30,460$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,349.67 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 1,980$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.85 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…9c49backed August Holmgren | 28c | 1,417$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.49 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked August Holmgren | 18c | 1,387$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…1b52backed August Holmgren | 21c | 1,262$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.84 | 619 | 24.4%151 W · 468 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 1,247$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.22 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed August Holmgren | 21c | 1,049$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa838…bccebacked Gustavo Heide | 70c | 714.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.28 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…7d86backed August Holmgren | 45c | 603.74$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.08 | 222 | 48.2%107 W · 115 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed August Holmgren | 32c | 465.75$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.37 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 422.79$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Gustavo Heide | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 308 | 57.1%176 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…f152backed August Holmgren | 31c | 390.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.89 | 734 | 58.6%430 W · 304 L | -26.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Gustavo Heide | 53c | 389.4$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.02 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…edabbacked August Holmgren | 12c | 267$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked August Holmgren | 11c | 266.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Gustavo Heide | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Gustavo Heide | 54c | 239.74$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked August Holmgren | 28c | 238.05$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.64 | 992 | 44.7%443 W · 549 L | -29.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…7889backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 235.6$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.63 | 560 | 70.7%396 W · 164 L | -14.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked August Holmgren | 27c | 226$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Gustavo Heide | 68c | 221.76$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 849 | 68.4%581 W · 268 L | +25.9wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb354…655ebacked August Holmgren | 15c | 178.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 170.01$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f6…af63backed August Holmgren | 21c | 169.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…1f49backed Gustavo Heide | 75c | 166.66$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.66 | 146 | 74%108 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…b0b3backed August Holmgren | 30c | 156.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked August Holmgren | 19c | 155.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 154 | 42.2%65 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked August Holmgren | 19c | 142.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked August Holmgren | 11c | 122.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked August Holmgren | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed August Holmgren | 18c | 107.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe031…5c08backed Gustavo Heide | 74c | 106.6$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 735 | 49.8%366 W · 369 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fab…708bbacked August Holmgren | 10c | 106.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1,276 | 30.4%388 W · 888 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed August Holmgren | 20c | 102.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed August Holmgren | 20c | 97.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…05e6backed Gustavo Heide | 66c | 95.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 2,085 | 44.5%928 W · 1,157 L | -51.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd51…ce69backed Gustavo Heide | 60c | 86.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 371 | 56.3%209 W · 162 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed August Holmgren | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 437 | 50.3%220 W · 217 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b9…9b4abacked August Holmgren | 25c | 69.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…cebfbacked Gustavo Heide | 76c | 65.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 671 | 78.7%528 W · 143 L | +49.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ba81backed August Holmgren | 23c | 61.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 474 | 31.9%151 W · 323 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ded…68a3backed Gustavo Heide | 80c | 56.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 885 | 60.2%533 W · 352 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…88dabacked August Holmgren | 26c | 52.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Gustavo Heide | 79c | 50.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked August Holmgren | 41c | 47.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Gustavo Heide | 79c | 41.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Gustavo Heide | 78c | 40.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…b4f5backed Gustavo Heide | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Gustavo Heide | 62c | 31.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 306 | 72.9%223 W · 83 L | +27.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed August Holmgren | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 27.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…5eeabacked Gustavo Heide | 77c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 230 | 73.9%170 W · 60 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 78cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b0c5backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 25.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Gustavo Heide | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 882 | 73.5%648 W · 234 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890a…7623backed Gustavo Heide | 76c | 24.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 249 | 75.5%188 W · 61 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Gustavo Heide | 76c | 23.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Gustavo Heide | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Gustavo Heide | 78c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.87 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.