Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebdea8ebece15279432b7df5edccb67e13e290ed19289cb2a7c1ab5b1de5b8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah Tech Trailblazersof UT Arlington Mavericks, Utah Tech Trailblazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 53c | 2,040$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.18 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1064…f153backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.98 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 68c | 1,492$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.22 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 31c | 1,468$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.22 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 61c | 1,393$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.79 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 1,100$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539 | 163 | 50.9%83 W · 80 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e1…7defbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 52c | 1,070$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…e76abacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 48c | 1,070$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 39c | 986.97$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.77 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…0fb2backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 76c | 976.03$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 39c | 972.13$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.32 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…d186backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 35c | 863$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 34c | 857.56$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.89 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 32c | 778$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.97 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 55c | 773.66$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.88 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f08…ed44backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 44c | 731.89$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.86 | 464 | 46.8%217 W · 247 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 45c | 658.67$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.2 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ea5ebacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 371 | 42.6%158 W · 213 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 51c | 589.68$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.94 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 46c | 555$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.35 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 52c | 461.54$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.54 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 50c | 454.54$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.27 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 64c | 436.61$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.35 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 48c | 399.92$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.96 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 50c | 329$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.11 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 44c | 326.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.88 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 54c | 279.99$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad5…ac2ebacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 43c | 278.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 32c | 261.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.04 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…f81dbacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 207.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 870 | 47.2%411 W · 459 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 57c | 204.04$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 368 | 45.7%168 W · 200 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…53b0backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 50c | 185.64$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 183$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.79 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 43c | 154.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 50c | 142$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 47c | 140$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d59…e0edbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 36c | 139.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…d3abbacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 42c | 138.57$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 202 | 34.2%69 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 25c | 136.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 52c | 129.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f7…2544backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 34c | 118.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 51c | 117.89$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 70c | 114$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 52c | 113.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 243 | 40.7%99 W · 144 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 13c | 104.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 143 | 54.5%78 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 53c | 101.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…5e07backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 41c | 93.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 53c | 87.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 397 | 42.8%170 W · 227 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 47c | 83.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 386 | 45.9%177 W · 209 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 49c | 81.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 536 | 46.5%249 W · 287 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 51c | 81.43$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 918 | 48.9%449 W · 469 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 34c | 81.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 44c | 74.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 34c | 68.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 2,048 | 32.7%670 W · 1,378 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 44c | 53.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 52c | 50.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 47c | 50.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 55c | 46.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 61c | 44.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 49c | 37.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 54c | 34.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked UT Arlington Mavericks | 46c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…1f83backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 646 | 58.8%380 W · 266 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…7a77backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 523 | 53.5%280 W · 243 L | -17.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…909abacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 80c | 25.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe0…a0bcbacked Utah Tech Trailblazers | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…5302backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 56c | 23.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3422…cd99backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 66c | 22.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…e817backed UT Arlington Mavericks | 52c | 21.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9c…da16backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 150 | 66%99 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…9524backed Utah Tech Trailblazers | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Tech Trailblazersthis page
- UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Tech Trailblazers: O/U 138.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.