College Football · resolved market
Spread: Oregon (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe3a780ddcf03c739ea53ba2ec60fa80a546b7fc02e1908709ec7e0575f4d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Texas Tech Red Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $363,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 54c | 323,535$173,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173,875.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Oregon | 46c | 263,383$121,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,228.04 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Oregon | 48c | 50,000$23,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,100 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Oregon | 52c | 18,546$9,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,902 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb889…a430backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 53c | 12,500$6,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,625 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Oregon | 47c | 2,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,325 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Oregon | 49c | 1,887$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.87 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Oregon | 55c | 1,573$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 51c | 1,379$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.16 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 46c | 1,251$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.07 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 1,062$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.93 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Oregon | 48c | 610$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.2 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 54c | 477.96$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Oregon | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ba…8497backed Oregon | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 54c | 383.79$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb1…0812backed Oregon | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Oregon | 46c | 277.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.66 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Oregon | 48c | 272.92$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Oregon | 46c | 110.24$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon | 54c | 108.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.07 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Oregon | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Oregon | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…8696backed Oregon | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 81.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1540…04e9backed Oregon | 47c | 69.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 43c | 50.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Oregon | 53c | 47.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b7…fa4bbacked Oregon | 52c | 46.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…8846backed Oregon | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Oregon | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Oregon | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a2…12b2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Oregon | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c27…b3c6backed Oregon | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Oregon (-1.5)this page
- O/U 52.5Under won
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red RaidersOregon won
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: 1H MoneylineOregon won
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 50.5Under won
- Oregon vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders: O/U 51.5Under won
- Spread: Oregon (-2.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.