TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Spread: Oregon (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oregonof Oregon, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$392,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$395,517

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $392,844 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1455…e5cdbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders53c97,326$51,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,232.0311849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Oregon47c80,000$37,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,4005745.6%26 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Texas Tech Red Raiders49c77,573$37,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,947.9993548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Oregon48c62,697$30,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,602.41080%8 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+110.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c60,209$30,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,704.366046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Oregon50c55,986$28,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,826.3729249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Oregon51c40,404$20,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,720.252449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x18d1…dbcbbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c33,884$17,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,2501136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55a1…db28backed Oregon49c26,350$12,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,515.321266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+29.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders53c16,216$8,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,586.492245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Oregon48c12,530$6,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,525.442,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c5,085$2,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,797944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Oregon49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.9639954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c4,512$2,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.441250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Oregon57c4,416$2,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.410047%47 W · 53 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x227e…e118backed Oregon51c4,203$2,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x014c…f5b6backed Oregon50c4,036$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,033.019048.9%44 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Oregon50c4,010$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,005.0411541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c4,000$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1203060%18 W · 12 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86b6…2c52backed Texas Tech Red Raiders3c3,751$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.752138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c3,426$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.6626244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…0262backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Texas Tech Red Raiders34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0203855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Oregon48c2,954$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.0648546.8%227 W · 258 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Oregon49c2,912$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.1862843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Oregon44c2,500$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4005942.4%25 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Oregon44c2,193$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.089051.1%46 W · 44 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Texas Tech Red Raiders48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.7417655.1%97 W · 79 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a2…d0a5backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c1,743$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.7140%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Oregon48c1,659$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.6758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Oregon48c1,600$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+61.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75011149.5%55 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Oregon60c1,437$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5773951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf79a…56c2backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c1,350$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6751855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Oregon49c1,300$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.699457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Oregon48c1,026$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.1813845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250e…e864backed Oregon49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+40%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fcb…08fbbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002060%12 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xea89…0b5fbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders58c860.29$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.972544%11 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Oregon48c825$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42910448.1%50 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Oregon50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Oregon51c784.31$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.312552%13 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…3f81backed Texas Tech Red Raiders47c639.61$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.72646.2%12 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Oregon48c559.2$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.96450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1df…4404backed Oregon48c544.09$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.321827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-41.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5387…c91ebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders31c511.1$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed Oregon50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25013432.8%44 W · 90 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe21a…88edbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c490.2$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9b…d8afbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c459.58$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd33a…2cc4backed Oregon55c447.49$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.97944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa61d…df1abacked Oregon46c439.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.132458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Oregon51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.162166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+49.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Oregon66c379.08$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.096753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Oregon51c372.38$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.7126940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Oregon56c371.65$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.712346.3%57 W · 66 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c370$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.41154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec0…87f3backed Oregon49c354.88$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+55%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon49c326.87$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2410346.6%48 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c326.26$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5754243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db2…9289backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c316.3$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.581758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Oregon49c305.77$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.9665945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb1…0812backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+39.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeca1…fc2ebacked Oregon50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bb…d0d6backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c297$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders55c291.92$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.881450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cbe…1c79backed Texas Tech Red Raiders41c244.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9b…a556backed Texas Tech Red Raiders52c240.38$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c219.19$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.171741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Oregon48c217.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.1528440.8%116 W · 168 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon49c204.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5456844.5%253 W · 315 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0ba…8497backed Oregon49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.083839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Texas Tech Red Raiders43c203.27$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4286243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Oregon49c202.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.014841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Texas Tech Red Raiders55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7373…22eabacked Oregon49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a93…32a0backed Oregon45c199.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102850%14 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c199.99$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Oregon51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.085743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99af…fedcbacked Oregon57c178.68$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.831566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+30.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ff0…91fcbacked Oregon63c173.75$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.322352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Oregon44c156.82$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.827553.3%40 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c152$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.524551.1%23 W · 22 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Oregon63c147.16$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.451060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb37…0e37backed Texas Tech Red Raiders50c147.06$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.93728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ae…2103backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c147.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Oregon51c147.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.062650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c44…6ecebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders51c125.49$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…2041backed Oregon51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.656654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e0…719cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders50c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f4…544cbacked Texas Tech Red Raiders54c111$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.94825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-51.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x844d…3059backed Oregon46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d5…74eabacked Oregon46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf673…a9a3backed Texas Tech Red Raiders51c108$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.691573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Oregon49c107.94$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0511545.2%52 W · 63 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ee3…31a5backed Texas Tech Red Raiders58c105.17$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+92.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Oregon65c100.95$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.620553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2bc5…3984backed Texas Tech Red Raiders53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Oregon51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0cd…b74cbacked Oregon56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4425819.8%51 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.