Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebe5deec3f036c8f1700bb6f082651e1b5cde365c6a390a340233f6e13a7460d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 615.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 11c | 499.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 77c | 406.22$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.43 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 17c | 273.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 246.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 213.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 21c | 208.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 207.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 182.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…489dbacked Yes | 8c | 174.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 13c | 170.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47c…2761backed Yes | 26c | 166.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 162.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 11c | 139.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…b725backed No | 71c | 132.48$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 19c | 124.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 122.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 117.5$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 106.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 14c | 97.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 27c | 93.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 15c | 90.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 20c | 80.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 14c | 74.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 65.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 36c | 55.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 20c | 51.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…b6b2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 38.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 32.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed No | 76c | 30.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…922ebacked No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 23.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.