Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf978af6cc9f2c637674400232d0e5736aaedb004a1b9e72d19b79e885ddd3df0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 3,784$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.02 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 5c | 750.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 715.94$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 19c | 558.94$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…9d6cbacked Yes | 31c | 353.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 13c | 350.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 7c | 300.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 67c | 296.14$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.14 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed No | 70c | 279.97$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 27c | 250.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 226.57$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 70c | 196$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 6c | 189.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 32c | 175.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 167.14$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 69c | 166.5$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 31c | 160.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 74c | 154.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 33c | 154.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 28c | 132.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 111.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 111$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 69c | 107.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 72c | 105$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 10c | 103.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…1475backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 18c | 94.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 32c | 92.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 91.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 75c | 86.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 68c | 83.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 67c | 77.81$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a1…6afbbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 72.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 71c | 70.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 33c | 70.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 69.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 33c | 67.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 24c | 65.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…9afabacked No | 69c | 64.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked No | 73c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 62.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 61.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 33c | 59.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 34c | 58.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…47cdbacked No | 70c | 57.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 56.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 55.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…d33bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 69c | 54.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…0648backed No | 65c | 53.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 66c | 50.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 50.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…b6b2backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 70c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 49.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 27c | 48.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 67c | 40.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…f5e5backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 37.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 73c | 37.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 69c | 36.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 36.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 70c | 36.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…8cbbbacked Yes | 34c | 36.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 71c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 31c | 35.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 28c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7436…24a9backed No | 68c | 35.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 67c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 34.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6051…1085backed Yes | 30c | 34.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 70c | 34.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…fd39backed No | 78c | 31.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…bc11backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.