Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0396cd1343cc1675c4da18f6ccd160849a093cf231f6b8d7fd81710e626b02f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4c4…c488backed Yes | 0c | 38,581$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 24,645$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 2,560$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.94 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 7c | 1,510$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 909.01$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 7c | 815.58$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c3…a47dbacked Yes | 3c | 483.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 4c | 365.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 354.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 330.2$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 11c | 322.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 7c | 300.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 11c | 278.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…fd24backed Yes | 20c | 269.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 10c | 249.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 237.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 15c | 233.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 77c | 210.86$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 207.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 185.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 6c | 181.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 8c | 172.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 65c | 153.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 7c | 145.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 28c | 143.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 18c | 130.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 11c | 128.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 36c | 127.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 31c | 112.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8c…1ddcbacked Yes | 12c | 94.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 51c | 91.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 14c | 86.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 12c | 86.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 19c | 83.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 23c | 77.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 63c | 62.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 26c | 51.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 45c | 43.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 62c | 37.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 34c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 31.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 70c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 61c | 24.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 69c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 76c | 17.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.