Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25ef573ebe652c5d1ce6b6132c7497e92ae4d48bf1ac5f78d8d3649342ffad38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 53c | 2,587$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.83 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 15c | 1,027$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 907.56$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 18c | 813.21$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.86 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 48c | 728.14$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.63 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 689.75$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 376.71$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 24c | 350$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 341.35$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 339$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 22c | 324.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 49c | 309.28$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.38 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 50c | 294.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.36 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 31c | 283.31$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 31c | 280.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…fd24backed Yes | 24c | 271.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 32c | 269.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 254.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 61c | 214.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.31 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 51c | 206.49$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 29c | 204.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.04 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 44c | 185.22$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 14c | 178.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.9 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 52c | 175.38$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 12c | 170$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 41c | 165.95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 72c | 158.5$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.77 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 11c | 158.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 41c | 158.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 59c | 157.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 19c | 155.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 31c | 154.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.44 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 27c | 145.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 38c | 141.68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 38c | 139.43$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 32c | 131.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 46c | 116.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.51 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 43c | 115.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes | 17c | 113.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 113.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 113.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 46c | 110.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.18 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 110.37$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 106.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 28c | 106.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.74 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 103.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 19c | 103.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 44c | 98.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 40c | 96.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…00afbacked Yes | 16c | 91.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 48c | 90.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 58c | 87.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 48c | 84.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 17c | 84.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 17c | 84.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 57c | 84.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 50c | 82.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed Yes | 58c | 78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…d33ebacked Yes | 52c | 76.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 39c | 64.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7d…06e3backed No | 36c | 57.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.06 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 34c | 54.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 75c | 50.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 46c | 50.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 57c | 48.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 59c | 46.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 62c | 45.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 45.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 30c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 60c | 40.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 50c | 39.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 60c | 39.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 36c | 38.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…7b12backed Yes | 48c | 37.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2829…8799backed Yes | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -15%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked No | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 46c | 34.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0549…3ee4backed Yes | 38c | 34.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…98edbacked Yes | 37c | 31.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 49c | 30.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 66c | 30.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 28.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 56c | 26.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe46d…2298backed No | 79c | 25.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.