Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1210ab09139b98daf312c02cdd973b2690e5cb7d07dee3a6f5c4288cec364cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 3,422$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed Yes | 4c | 1,088$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 77c | 961.54$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.84 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 74c | 790.27$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 29c | 611.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.76 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…acf0backed Yes | 25c | 605.23$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 12c | 529.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 443.19$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 30c | 389.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.18 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 32c | 387.65$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.43 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 359.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 19c | 350.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aed…feacbacked Yes | 21c | 290.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 25c | 258.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 20c | 254.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 79c | 249.99$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 243$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…0711backed Yes | 45c | 221.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 76c | 213.41$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 8c | 209.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 70c | 180.36$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.3 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 178.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 28c | 176.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 166$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 27c | 165.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 156.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 155.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 22c | 154.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 10c | 149.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 139.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 133$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 44c | 131.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…f3ffbacked Yes | 23c | 128.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 117.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 10c | 115.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 107.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 78c | 105.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 24c | 104.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 15c | 102.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 101.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 101.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 22c | 99.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 99.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 39c | 97.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 22c | 90.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…87f5backed Yes | 20c | 89.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1db…594cbacked No | 64c | 88.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…f963backed Yes | 28c | 86.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 34c | 86.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 84.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 82.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 61c | 80.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 22c | 79.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 38c | 79.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97aa…903bbacked Yes | 30c | 77.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 76.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 19c | 72.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 18c | 70.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 27c | 67.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 74c | 67.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 31c | 65.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…1475backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…8648backed No | 74c | 63.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 30c | 62.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 61.58$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 49c | 61.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb725…7b12backed Yes | 30c | 57.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce0a…d131backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 54c | 54.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 53.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…b6b2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…32b2backed No | 73c | 47.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 22c | 47.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 75c | 46.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 41.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 74c | 37.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…6822backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 74c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 33.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…c555backed No | 76c | 33.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b1c…bd99backed No | 57c | 26.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 45c | 25.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.