Tweets · resolved market
Will White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebf726992260ddaa833c0c8f9b463364157caab9cd51e3342b5fda2e09ef1f51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 49c | 1,236$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.42 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceed…f8eebacked Yes | 52c | 611$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.5 | 251 | 27.1%68 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 70c | 522.27$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 308$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.32 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 66c | 302.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…6071backed Yes | 39c | 300$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.34 | 247 | 32.4%80 W · 167 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 43c | 299.69$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.14 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 36c | 236.63$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.62 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 164.62$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 63c | 134$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 124 | 9.7%12 W · 112 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0442…c517backed Yes | 37c | 122.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 70c | 118.29$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 101.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 183 | 58.5%107 W · 76 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 27c | 99.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 88.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 32c | 75.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 52c | 72.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd34…17e5backed Yes | 36c | 68.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 67c | 65.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…91e9backed No | 65c | 61.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…46c2backed Yes | 47c | 56.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 43c | 53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 40c | 48.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 44.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 72c | 43.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2415…c70bbacked No | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…85afbacked No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 148 | 64.9%96 W · 52 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 76c | 39.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 110 | 50%55 W · 55 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 28.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea3f…b898backed No | 74c | 25.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e6…f914backed Yes | 70c | 23.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…6367backed No | 75c | 20.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bee…cdc5backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will White House post 200+ posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?this page
- Will White House post 160-179 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
- Will White House post 180-199 posts from July 24 to July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.