Earnings · resolved market
Will Deere (DE) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0d6ae4c537bce4bc63709f65c2418300806ebbd260b72e250755de63a7dec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 33c | 1,042$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.89 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 52c | 857.47$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.48 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 35c | 737.55$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.82 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a36…428fbacked No | 49c | 466.2$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…9df5backed Yes | 69c | 372.52$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 53c | 244.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.69 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b1…799abacked Yes | 67c | 223.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed Yes | 64c | 169.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 60c | 160.46$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.18 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…553bbacked Yes | 66c | 156.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 139 | 60.4%84 W · 55 L | +14.8wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 66c | 151.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…ca1bbacked No | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…ad59backed Yes | 72c | 139.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 67c | 139$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 138.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 134.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -62%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3d…7a79backed No | 50c | 133.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a28…aa5cbacked Yes | 72c | 107.85$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 43c | 101.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f21…9faabacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9024backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…26a4backed No | 55c | 99.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 48c | 95.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 33c | 90.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…c2a3backed No | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 59c | 73.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…a1a4backed No | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…a3adbacked Yes | 45c | 62.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f58abacked No | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 33c | 62.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked No | 47c | 60.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 38c | 60.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…d40abacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b0…0319backed No | 48c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a7c1backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 46.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…04c8backed Yes | 57c | 46.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 32c | 45.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…cd5fbacked Yes | 47c | 39.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 69c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…7ca4backed Yes | 52c | 38.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 33c | 38.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…a9a9backed Yes | 63c | 37.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c75abacked Yes | 53c | 37.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…b34bbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc121…e0c3backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 64cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed Yes | 64c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 52c | 31.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…cea0backed Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 66c | 29.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…2c8ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1c…f81fbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af1…435cbacked Yes | 51c | 23.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…7b21backed Yes | 53c | 23.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87aa…592dbacked No | 48c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…61e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.