Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xece33349a60509a44f47b9189812845ec2a17404e5aa8649cc8c039f9e43a75d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 56c | 3,010$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,317.7 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 41c | 877.53$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.97 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 35c | 834.15$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.47 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 48c | 760.01$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.8 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes | 43c | 750.32$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…cc26backed Yes | 48c | 731.63$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.33 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 41c | 624.71$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.37 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed No | 2c | 618.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed No | 9c | 573.91$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 531.72$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.87 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 512.3$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.51 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 3c | 504.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…8a75backed No | 5c | 489.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 40c | 478.66$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…a052backed Yes | 75c | 453.28$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 58c | 448.66$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.38 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 49c | 385.16$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.61 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 46c | 367.2$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…2d5dbacked No | 70c | 363.18$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Yes | 57c | 351.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.95 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 44c | 350.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.04 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 45c | 327.62$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 325.25$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 322.29$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 316.96$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 313$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.33 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 267.68$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…7bd9backed No | 53c | 256.44$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…464fbacked Yes | 57c | 240.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 48c | 240.32$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 45c | 235.26$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.26 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 46c | 234.19$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.73 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 56c | 232.81$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 225.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 14c | 216.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 58c | 206.8$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.63 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 205.46$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 47c | 205.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 203.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 36c | 196.09$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 48c | 194.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 193$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked No | 61c | 191.56$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 46c | 188.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed No | 70c | 188.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.19 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 51c | 185.17$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 48c | 182.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 181.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.89 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…1bf7backed Yes | 56c | 177.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…0379backed Yes | 70c | 173.84$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 20c | 173.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 172.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 47c | 171.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked Yes | 38c | 168.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.51 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 165.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 45c | 150.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 47c | 148.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 44c | 147.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 39c | 143.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.12 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 139.94$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked Yes | 41c | 139.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.64 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…740ebacked No | 40c | 137.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 53c | 132.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 57c | 129.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 46c | 126.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.35 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 122.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 26c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 40c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 14c | 116.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Yes | 54c | 109.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 79c | 106.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes | 51c | 105.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 53c | 104.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 50c | 100.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 39c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba7…9321backed Yes | 44c | 96.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 48c | 94.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.18 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 67c | 91.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 35c | 87.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 47c | 86.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 66c | 84.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 53c | 77.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 45c | 73.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 57c | 69.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 45c | 68.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 64c | 67.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 47c | 67.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 65.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.