Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73590227c80530cd786250286f3001699dbd30f7ece0f9b51a4af07279b06656
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe633…8a75backed Yes | 2c | 6,633$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 38c | 1,772$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.72 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 1c | 1,186$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 63c | 1,131$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,079$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…5391backed Yes | 3c | 1,034$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…5bfdbacked Yes | 34c | 993.3$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 37c | 700$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.57 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 696.6$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.98 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9e…d60fbacked Yes | 8c | 602.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 3c | 546.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 512.3$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.17 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 42c | 479.9$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.36 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 396$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 365.98$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 69c | 350$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 345.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.21 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 323.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 296$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.02 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 58c | 294.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3000…9eb1backed Yes | 74c | 282.26$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x384d…0379backed Yes | 58c | 279.43$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 266.28$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 265.25$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 34c | 263.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 65c | 240$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 228.33$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 38c | 219.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 216.09$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.22 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 37c | 213.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f29…475abacked Yes | 59c | 208.41$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.14 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 208.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 50c | 204.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 202.46$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.59 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 192.99$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 184.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 62c | 181.16$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Yes | 43c | 180.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 23c | 179.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 178.73$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.17 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 173.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.88 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 33c | 170.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 35c | 168.21$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 47c | 168.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 164.69$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 58c | 161.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed Yes | 38c | 161.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c7…e3fcbacked Yes | 44c | 160.13$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda0…8992backed Yes | 44c | 160.01$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ea…93a8backed Yes | 31c | 158.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 55c | 158.45$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.81 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 50c | 146.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 47c | 143.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 36c | 141.4$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 51c | 141.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…cb63backed Yes | 14c | 138.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 58c | 137$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 39c | 132.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…9be9backed Yes | 71c | 131.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 56c | 126.07$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 120.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 117.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…9c28backed Yes | 37c | 114.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b1…5dc6backed Yes | 35c | 112.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x706c…189dbacked Yes | 38c | 110.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 33c | 109.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf279…202cbacked No | 38c | 109.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 59c | 106.4$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 31c | 102.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 55c | 101.13$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 38c | 97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 96.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…8c3ebacked Yes | 69c | 95.16$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 67c | 80.29$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 54c | 77.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8c…f0ddbacked Yes | 75c | 73.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…89d0backed Yes | 73c | 68.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 33c | 68.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 68c | 65.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 47c | 62.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 65c | 61.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 58.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 68c | 54.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 54.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Yes | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 28c | 53.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 56c | 52.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…08ecbacked No | 59c | 52.54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.