TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,183

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x39c6…daeebacked Natus Vincere24c3,208$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7701526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed Team Falcons76c2,519$1,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.6410661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Natus Vincere26c1,807$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.72020%4 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere20c1,705$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.961,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere25c1,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.9939936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Team Falcons79c1,293$1,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.6717950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere25c1,200$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9949133.6%165 W · 326 L+1.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed Natus Vincere22c1,200$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2624445.5%20 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17c4…9736backed Natus Vincere27c871$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd4b…f8fbbacked Natus Vincere23c843.51$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.55137.3%19 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Natus Vincere27c813.8$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3420827.9%58 W · 150 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7072…abccbacked Team Falcons75c802$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20212868%87 W · 41 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc497…d6e4backed Natus Vincere27c790$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b31…e081backed Natus Vincere27c753$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+136.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere24c726.86$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4589440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x031d…db9dbacked Team Falcons75c701.75$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7515653.2%83 W · 73 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Natus Vincere15c681.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10054445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe08e…1d61backed Team Falcons77c653.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.044678.3%36 W · 10 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x040f…e98cbacked Team Falcons78c634.62$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.626046.7%28 W · 32 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons77c625.58$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.5247660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c02…78cebacked Team Falcons73c581$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.87250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Natus Vincere22c545.81$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.348411.9%10 W · 74 L-14.1wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-63.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x2b6a…31f4backed Team Falcons73c539$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons75c507.25$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.5761057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Team Falcons72c504.89$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.5680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa082…320abacked Team Falcons75c468.93$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.932100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Natus Vincere20c450$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x148a…d483backed Team Falcons73c436$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Team Falcons75c400$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002576%19 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick71cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8942…9ea9backed Team Falcons76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.746943.5%30 W · 39 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea5…2af9backed Team Falcons74c378.38$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.385078%39 W · 11 L+7.4wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+20.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2011…f296backed Team Falcons75c349.99$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.51872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Team Falcons77c334.99$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.056460.9%39 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c61…470fbacked Team Falcons76c327.98$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.989544.2%42 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…1081backed Team Falcons77c325.14$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.141464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da2…0ca7backed Team Falcons73c317$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.59580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…2ecdbacked Team Falcons72c300$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8412533.6%42 W · 83 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf591…c231backed Team Falcons73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1e…ff14backed Natus Vincere22c290.88$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9911253.6%60 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8f…092ebacked Team Falcons78c277.17$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.981968.4%13 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x931f…d15dbacked Team Falcons74c269.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.63372.7%24 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Team Falcons75c266.66$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.675756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Natus Vincere26c266$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.161040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-41.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa667…2951backed Team Falcons73c266$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+31.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…7058backed Team Falcons76c263.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1611551.3%59 W · 56 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c7…b39cbacked Team Falcons76c263$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Natus Vincere25c258.17$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.548037.5%30 W · 50 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa533…acacbacked Team Falcons80c250.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.166855.9%38 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe063…8a04backed Natus Vincere8c245.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Natus Vincere23c221.74$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.039126.4%24 W · 67 L-9.8wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-32.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x871c…7f0abacked Team Falcons74c203.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.996068.3%41 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb24e…c0bebacked Natus Vincere19c197.77$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8ae…df55backed Team Falcons75c161.32$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Natus Vincere21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa49…6330backed Team Falcons78c147.83$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5211157.7%64 W · 47 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fdd…7245backed Natus Vincere24c147.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.31566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+30.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd942…47f3backed Team Falcons72c140$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.25100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d34…ddfcbacked Team Falcons76c140$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Natus Vincere25c140$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3580742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Team Falcons75c139.07$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.779852%51 W · 47 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f2…3263backed Team Falcons74c135.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.156175.4%46 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b1c…2a3ebacked Team Falcons75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.339054.4%49 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…d648backed Team Falcons79c126.84$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.841492.9%13 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick71cpaid+31.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1420…8f14backed Natus Vincere16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick33cpaid-87.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc631…9655backed Natus Vincere20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7243…942abacked Natus Vincere26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2613850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Natus Vincere25c98.51$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.862321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0338…4f11backed Natus Vincere20c98.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203740.5%15 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd8…a5bebacked Natus Vincere25c96.92$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2320339.9%81 W · 122 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb861…27ffbacked Natus Vincere23c95.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228247.6%39 W · 43 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere24c83.94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.566169.7%60 W · 556 L-2.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-53.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…4ab2backed Natus Vincere25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.428244%124 W · 158 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x047a…941ebacked Natus Vincere18c79.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.423640.7%96 W · 140 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3646…d43dbacked Natus Vincere26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a73…9daabacked Team Falcons74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.572875%21 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4283…b5dabacked Team Falcons75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.674678.3%36 W · 10 L+4.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xac7f…361fbacked Natus Vincere30c65.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-52.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Team Falcons77c64.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.654864.6%31 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Falcons78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.113450.7%68 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe27e…f46cbacked Team Falcons80c62.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0c6…a111backed Team Falcons75c62.47$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.623275%24 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa092…f64ebacked Team Falcons75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153476.5%26 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e87…8befbacked Team Falcons70c52.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.694573.3%33 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a29…c0b6backed Team Falcons77c51.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.955777.2%44 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Natus Vincere26c50.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.934438.6%17 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Team Falcons72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145464.8%35 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Natus Vincere25c48.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.197231.9%23 W · 49 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Team Falcons74c44.64$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.388035%28 W · 52 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+1.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3183…a303backed Team Falcons74c40.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc3a3…d89bbacked Team Falcons75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33da…f818backed Team Falcons75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105655.4%31 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad4…721fbacked Team Falcons75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106844.1%30 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x614b…5845backed Team Falcons75c38.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.735874.1%43 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf90c…f49cbacked Team Falcons78c38.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.462792.6%25 W · 2 L+6.5wins+0.24per pick69cpaid+36.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Team Falcons78c36.09$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0926958.7%158 W · 111 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc22a…2135backed Team Falcons75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.336100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf1a…202fbacked Team Falcons76c30.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd18b…300cbacked Team Falcons74c27.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6750757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…3bf9backed Team Falcons75c26.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.671478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.