TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3646…d43d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
42
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: MLB, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category MLB at 61 out of 100; worst NHL at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$9.86
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Celtics vs. Spursbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.32
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16.09
Kings vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+61.3%+$6.74
Trail Blazers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+49.3%+$10.84
Bulls vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.26
Bucks vs. Wizardsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+44.9%+$9.88
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$6.49
76ers vs. Netsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+40.8%+$9.39
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+33.3%+$7.67
Clippers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.99
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
Pistons vs. Pacersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+25%+$2.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.37per pick52cpaid+78.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Kansas City Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$27.86
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$19.61
Dodgers vs. Brewersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$14.69
Tigers vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.35
Pirates vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Tigers vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$8.05
Nationals vs. Marlinsbacked Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.79
All 9 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Eagles vs. Chargersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Bears vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Bengals vs. Ravensbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+334.8%+$66.96
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+170.3%+$34.05
All 4 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+96.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ole Miss vs. Mississippi Statebacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+37%+$8.51
Navy vs. Memphisbacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+156.4%+$31.28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: France (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$7.76
Spread: Spain (-1.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cordenons: Inaki Montes vs Lorenzo Angelinibacked Lorenzo Angelini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$136
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1)backed Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.