Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee97986551a9d4ad2c6b56cefb4541df9df5fbd755e63ef415a7b8783381b437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 3c | 1,290$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 3c | 812.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 14c | 799.52$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.94 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 729.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 30c | 621.76$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.98 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7137…0c12backed Yes | 7c | 445.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 436.12$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 423.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 20c | 396.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 22c | 384.9$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.22 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 365.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 363.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 293.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 272.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 251.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 36c | 232.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 226.4$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 38c | 221.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd9…5fdebacked Yes | 8c | 196.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 189.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 18c | 174.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 26c | 156.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 151.21$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 35c | 147.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 16c | 140.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…3269backed Yes | 30c | 140.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 138.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 136.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 126.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 15c | 125.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 122.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 14c | 119.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 116.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 35c | 114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 17c | 113.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dc…7351backed Yes | 27c | 108.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce67…5c3abacked Yes | 15c | 103.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 101.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a20…c1b5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 33c | 98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 96.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 41c | 96.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 87.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 14c | 87.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 87.29$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 61c | 84.72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 83.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 26c | 80.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 75.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 21c | 75.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 75.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…902bbacked Yes | 41c | 73.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 73.24$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 17c | 68.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…a8d9backed Yes | 18c | 66.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 55.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 51.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 36c | 50.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed No | 64c | 50.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 35c | 49.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 49.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 37c | 45.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 43.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 32c | 43.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 39.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dd…18c9backed Yes | 35c | 39.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 39.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 36.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…6771backed Yes | 35c | 36.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed No | 63c | 34.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 38c | 29.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd0…3df2backed No | 79c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…c168backed Yes | 41c | 29.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabc…f582backed No | 68c | 27.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 71c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 23.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.