Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8604224f1b08bfa1592cd75b975a0f708e829b800c449cafdf165777c6df31f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 33c | 2,281$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.72 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 27c | 1,829$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 72c | 1,732$1,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.14 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked No | 14c | 1,029$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 27c | 1,027$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 54c | 1,018$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.19 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 50c | 1,009$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.04 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 912.16$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 891.81$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Yes | 26c | 769.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 79c | 729.41$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 693.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 672.3$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 53c | 559.77$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.74 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 530.92$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 518.34$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7c…d7b8backed No | 20c | 511.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 500.03$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.93 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed No | 63c | 474.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 67c | 465.46$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 438.99$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.08 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 75c | 395$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 20c | 362.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.25 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 17c | 362.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.85 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 24c | 339.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.45 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed No | 69c | 337.5$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.76 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 20c | 324.52$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.52 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 73c | 324.19$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.4 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 71c | 323.79$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 30c | 321.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.65 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 49c | 304.65$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 293.52$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 31c | 257.58$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed No | 32c | 250$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 75c | 244.75$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 19c | 241.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 21c | 231.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.28 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 23c | 206.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.18 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 21c | 206.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.88 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 197.5$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 192.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 42c | 188.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.68 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 176.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.7 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 17c | 175.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 29c | 171.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 170.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e7…ed80backed Yes | 31c | 165.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.73 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 29c | 163.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 37c | 151.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 78c | 147.01$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 35c | 145.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa7…1e46backed Yes | 30c | 140.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 132.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 132.06$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 66c | 128.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 122.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c5…508dbacked Yes | 41c | 121.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 46c | 120.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.35 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 119.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 20c | 118$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.76 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed No | 24c | 112.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 72c | 112.79$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 22c | 110.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.95 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 16c | 110$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 67c | 107.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 28c | 106.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 104.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd27f…13afbacked No | 23c | 103.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 73c | 103.05$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 100.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 64c | 100.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 19c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…5305backed Yes | 79c | 98.18$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 98.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 27c | 92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 90.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd998…918bbacked Yes | 28c | 88.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.88 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 88.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 87.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 32c | 87.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 83.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 81.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…8378backed Yes | 58c | 80.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 27c | 79.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 79.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed Yes | 23c | 77.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked Yes | 59c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 24c | 75.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 74.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 19c | 72.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 53c | 70.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.62 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 18c | 68.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.