Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09ee95b6c1fab1585cb3e3fe53056f529d89db43b1833e5683e7ef2b82d53571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f7…1494backed Yes | 34c | 2,270$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 1,023$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,011$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 20c | 699.97$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 672.3$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.29 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 24c | 511.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 76c | 508.84$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 507.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 23c | 471.61$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 446.83$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.64 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a22…2851backed Yes | 25c | 444.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 39c | 435.18$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.75 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 424.18$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.86 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.9 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 346.47$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 336.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437f…5b95backed Yes | 30c | 326.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 29c | 322.03$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 305.52$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.66 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 290.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 34c | 287.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 273.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 260.64$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 256.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0050…cad1backed No | 56c | 245.63$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…d584backed Yes | 25c | 236.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 29c | 232.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…1d84backed Yes | 28c | 219.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd35…c85ebacked Yes | 33c | 211.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 34c | 208.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 30c | 204.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Yes | 24c | 202.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed No | 76c | 192.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 187.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked Yes | 31c | 176.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 77c | 167.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 23c | 160.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 29c | 158.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 154.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 152.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 149.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 75c | 146.84$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 69c | 145.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 139.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 138.89$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 8c | 137.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 29c | 135.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 135.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 134.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 72c | 131.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 23c | 131.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 24c | 130$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 74c | 121.18$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 121$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de3…c880backed Yes | 24c | 119.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 28c | 117.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 34c | 115.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 26c | 114.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 36c | 108.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 27c | 104$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…825dbacked No | 73c | 103.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 66cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…57c7backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…30d5backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 21c | 99.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 98.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 68c | 96.95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c5…508dbacked Yes | 49c | 96.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 87.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc3…a8d9backed Yes | 40c | 87.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…feb9backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 31c | 77.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9db2…43aabacked Yes | 29c | 77.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 27c | 77.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…e2afbacked No | 74c | 76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 38c | 74.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…8853backed Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d8…9383backed Yes | 37c | 68.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f46…7a71backed No | 48c | 66.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 65.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 64.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…1fd4backed Yes | 31c | 63.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 31c | 63.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…1de5backed Yes | 26c | 63.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 63.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 27c | 62.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 67c | 60.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 59.01$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…2762backed Yes | 39c | 58.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.