TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,333

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x035a…ff68backed No40c874.85$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34731542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No39c492.74$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.858,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes42c431.2$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.721,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c425.75$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.3817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd277…9304backed No55c415.9$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.091553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes73c396.29$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.554,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes72c224.68$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9439541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes72c213.41$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.9832444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c202.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes71c184.55$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6209…e82fbacked No32c183.31$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.691827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-46.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7ce1…c33abacked No31c182.06$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3414961.1%91 W · 58 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f03…42a6backed Yes43c171.96$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.613826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked Yes69c167.55$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.092,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94da…25b5backed No47c166.66$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.443707.8%29 W · 341 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No33c164.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.681,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes56c158.69$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.1365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No15c152.22$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbcde…5222backed Yes72c138.42$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No29c133.12$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.481,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No51c128.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.18160.5%49 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No57c124.93$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.830859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes27c122.17$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.1930046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes79c121.57$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.637081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No26c117.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3671823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d90…d388backed No46c116$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3640%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No37c111.3$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.484,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked Yes58c109.68$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.410865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes75c105.92$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.019,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes44c103.31$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7731029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba04…310bbacked Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked No25c99.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9921641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes72c97.48$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.8349547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes73c95.95$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8111874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes70c94.88$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.611,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed Yes79c90.48$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8518740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c89.45$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.683,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes51c87.66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b4…6987backed Yes70c86.12$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes65c84.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.269270.7%65 W · 27 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+25.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes58c81.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.412,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed Yes74c79.01$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.189176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed No19c78.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9911220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes53c75.07$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.629640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked Yes75c72.57$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.2852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes53c71.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4786847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea0d…2b8ebacked Yes74c66.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.11136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes47c64.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.361,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes71c62.91$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes41c61.82$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.473,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes57c60$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.815275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1c9…6872backed Yes80c59.8$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.962857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes63c59.78$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes77c59.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7927560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No52c59.01$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5118650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed Yes72c57.73$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No23c55.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.684,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab0c…2f12backed Yes44c54.25$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.38757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+166.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes47c54.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.631,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe208…e98cbacked Yes75c51.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.844551.1%23 W · 22 L+5.4wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed No22c51.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1734319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No57c50.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7112567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes74c49.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8859440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed Yes78c48.6$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.98969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes64c48.2$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3539535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes65c47.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6716924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes73c46.63$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes76c46.45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3221068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0198…133bbacked No28c44.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3518452.2%96 W · 88 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31e2…a655backed Yes75c42.81$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.626275.8%47 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No65c42.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.531,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No52c41.22$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2413067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No49c38.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1957038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No30c38.08$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x28a2…2778backed Yes52c38.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.38540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd7…a265backed Yes79c37.49$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No52c37.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3123349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes40c36.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2733243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e76…95cdbacked No47c35.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.441936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes53c34.19$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.072,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No39c33.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2363656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8c…e802backed Yes77c33.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.719338.7%36 W · 57 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No31c32.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025130.7%77 W · 174 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes59c32.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.272,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed Yes65c31.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.991,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No75c30.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8224149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.235362.9%222 W · 131 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked Yes68c29.7$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes70c29.7$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9135465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4add…fb04backed Yes66c28.54$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6611844.9%53 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes80c27.1$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.551650%8 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+93%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x497f…d987backed Yes46c26.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59c6…ad9dbacked Yes54c26.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.195853.4%31 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60e4…f926backed No59c25.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.281833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad65…b49ebacked Yes75c25.49$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.347771.4%55 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b7…fc8ebacked Yes70c25.23$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.461573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes49c24.83$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7813531.9%43 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed Yes61c23.66$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.259779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.