TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,901
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,340

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,901 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes3c1,554$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.312231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes25c798.58$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.054,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c782.52$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.828,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes10c493.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4216832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes11c385.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.167,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes23c314.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.311,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes30c314.66$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9549941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No76c292.8$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.31,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes27c256.31$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7556721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No72c211.36$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes26c186.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6231542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes24c175.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.641,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No71c170.57$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.462,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c167.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes21c149.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.666,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes10c146.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3898738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c135.69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes9c127.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4cc…a95dbacked No75c126.63$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.037081.4%57 W · 13 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick67cpaid+26.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes23c126.24$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.191,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes30c121$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No74c113.29$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.292,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c8…446cbacked Yes21c108.41$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.775225%13 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2412068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes25c98.63$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6621641.7%90 W · 126 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ea1…d176backed Yes20c98.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5120353.7%109 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No79c97.9$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.536767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes18c91.36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5823022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c91.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.765,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes17c88.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9926426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…62cbbacked No79c82.68$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7711874.6%88 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes22c80.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.162419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5245…00c4backed Yes35c80.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.129640.5%120 W · 176 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes20c79.12$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8239535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes33c71.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3186847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes21c71.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c70.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.383,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked No77c63.73$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8933450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfabc…7178backed No79c62.81$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.469176.9%70 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick74cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes21c61.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No76c60.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.612,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafb…e81ebacked Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.715275.7%115 W · 37 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes23c59.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4a8…1b2bbacked No79c59.81$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.561656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd138…aac0backed Yes18c58.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.489221.7%20 W · 72 L-8.1wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-38.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes26c57.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1545236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c54.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.261,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d6…64fbbacked No75c53.78$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1821068.6%144 W · 66 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes24c51.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x901f…549bbacked Yes35c50.93$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fde…cc92backed No76c49.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122369.6%16 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a0…636abacked Yes28c49.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.752850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No75c49.14$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.134,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes35c48.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.941,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd1b0…7efcbacked No77c45.3$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.333770.3%26 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e04…d367backed No78c42.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.318969.7%62 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes30c41.74$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes28c41.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3831029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf31…454abacked No71c41.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9919152.9%101 W · 90 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe651…4661backed No76c40.03$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.461181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick71cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No74c39.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.451,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No73c39.41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6470770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes31c37.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.97,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ef…0cf9backed No80c34.33$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.976464.1%41 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa912…297fbacked No72c34.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5463656.1%357 W · 279 L+1.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No71c33.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8698160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…c61bbacked No64c33.09$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.915655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No76c31.73$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7297570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No74c29.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6748672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c29.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No76c28.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.051,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed No68c28.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1123349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1b7…fc8ebacked No78c25.18$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.621573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick69cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No75c22.93$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No69c22.3$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8227464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No74c20.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.397470.3%52 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe91a…784ebacked No79c20.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f6…eadabacked No77c20.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7816575.8%125 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe166…7227backed No72c20.25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.679779.4%77 W · 20 L+8.9wins+0.09per pick70cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.616065.6%105 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd088…a3eabacked No78c19.56$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.357972.2%57 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No75c17.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4676371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No71c17.79$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.212,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed No75c17.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3532044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed No77c17.01$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8926566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No71c16.81$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.871,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed No76c16.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.96376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No74c16.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2240777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No77c16.03$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.7522675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No66c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4427050.4%136 W · 134 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6154…0404backed No78c15.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.383580%28 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b37…f13abacked No72c14.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.181776.5%13 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaca…a0b6backed No72c13.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8929653.4%158 W · 138 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.