Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: sleepers vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef08343738db9e369a1fe9f7c2db6bdaabf514e2bd1a77ba02256b14f7398429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shopify Rebellion Blackof sleepers, Shopify Rebellion Black
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee8e…0a7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 4,774$2,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,912.9 | 781 | 62%484 W · 297 L | +16.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed sleepers | 40c | 4,390$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.09 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +11.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…25c0backed sleepers | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 125 | 40.8%51 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked sleepers | 66c | 899.98$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…ba86backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 804.84$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 466$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked sleepers | 43c | 445$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.58 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 429.53$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked sleepers | 11c | 425.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed sleepers | 31c | 407.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 316 | 34.2%108 W · 208 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 387.02$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 368.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.16 | 1,358 | 39%530 W · 828 L | -57.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…8e71backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 351.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc128…5b3abacked sleepers | 36c | 331.74$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.16 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 278.49$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.27 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed sleepers | 32c | 216$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 212.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcf…48e1backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 60c | 205$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked sleepers | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 194.49$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.63 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefff…2d98backed sleepers | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6741…e0f9backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 157.35$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed sleepers | 58c | 144.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.14 | 282 | 47.5%134 W · 148 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596b…e891backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 140.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ad…be4ebacked sleepers | 42c | 136.22$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…1d74backed sleepers | 38c | 116.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67bb…d11fbacked sleepers | 33c | 114.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 47c | 112.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 147 | 57.8%85 W · 62 L | +13.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0e…9f75backed sleepers | 41c | 109.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked sleepers | 39c | 100.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…b335backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36f…b75cbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 35c | 97.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed sleepers | 30c | 95.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 73c | 90.37$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,376 | 47.1%648 W · 728 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…52d4backed sleepers | 62c | 88.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…ca5dbacked sleepers | 35c | 77.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked sleepers | 48c | 76.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 58c | 74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…987ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 56c | 73.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 70.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 62c | 64.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked sleepers | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…671fbacked sleepers | 45c | 59.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…c346backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 75c | 54.77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed sleepers | 39c | 51.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 285 | 48.4%138 W · 147 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed sleepers | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…b133backed sleepers | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed sleepers | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67b1…63ecbacked sleepers | 27c | 42.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed sleepers | 39c | 41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 42c | 40.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ad…5e56backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 53c | 37.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed sleepers | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6935…5159backed sleepers | 42c | 35.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed sleepers | 43c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…f6debacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ff…2506backed Shopify Rebellion Black | 67c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…940fbacked Shopify Rebellion Black | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.