TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #6 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Walczakiof Walczaki, UNiTY esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$101,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Walczaki72c21,898$15,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,126.515,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed UNiTY esports31c7,365$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.9584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Walczaki72c6,260$4,527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.262,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed UNiTY esports28c6,152$1,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,722.6266851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Walczaki64c5,490$3,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.7921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed UNiTY esports31c3,718$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.892,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed UNiTY esports28c2,744$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.621,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked UNiTY esports45c2,665$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,197.945,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Walczaki75c2,563$1,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.1122241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcefd…d6aabacked UNiTY esports29c2,541$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.15738.6%22 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed UNiTY esports29c1,910$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.922044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked Walczaki57c1,852$1,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.195867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed UNiTY esports29c1,813$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.6322142.5%94 W · 127 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5e…185ebacked Walczaki69c1,696$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked UNiTY esports27c1,532$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.6275652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed UNiTY esports31c1,484$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.031,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Walczaki74c1,471$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.799565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed UNiTY esports27c1,426$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.9248240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked UNiTY esports25c1,187$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.723,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1614…0bedbacked Walczaki70c1,168$817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.859837.8%37 W · 61 L-9.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Walczaki71c1,137$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.0346555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Walczaki71c1,071$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.7159755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Walczaki69c1,000$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30837557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Walczaki67c999.98$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.9921060%126 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed UNiTY esports31c989.8$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30338841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed UNiTY esports27c891.67$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.7577351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked UNiTY esports29c859$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.033831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9894…16adbacked Walczaki77c850.19$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Walczaki71c848.55$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.822,00953.9%1,082 W · 927 L+7.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bb…bd8ebacked UNiTY esports30c760.89$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.1119236.5%70 W · 122 L-15.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked UNiTY esports28c754.23$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.6434140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed UNiTY esports29c733.9$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0637848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ff…b842backed UNiTY esports30c678.82$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2063256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03c5…5f61backed UNiTY esports27c678.33$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1523732.9%78 W · 159 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed UNiTY esports28c631.42$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5833627.7%93 W · 243 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed UNiTY esports29c625.36$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3419953.8%107 W · 92 L+10.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed UNiTY esports27c600$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16412651.6%65 W · 61 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed UNiTY esports31c577.38$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4564854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked UNiTY esports20c554.03$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.321,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x218b…625abacked UNiTY esports25c511$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.2522729.1%66 W · 161 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39df…6edfbacked UNiTY esports27c474.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.142236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed UNiTY esports29c463.45$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.455039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc700…31a1backed UNiTY esports27c460$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.27140.8%29 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x920a…29e0backed UNiTY esports28c444.43$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.447653.9%41 W · 35 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44d4…60d1backed UNiTY esports20c428.93$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Walczaki64c428.45$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.39850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed Walczaki72c418.02$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0231761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10cf…60cfbacked UNiTY esports28c412.63$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.52657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked UNiTY esports12c399.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4841250.2%207 W · 205 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Walczaki70c399.97$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.994660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Walczaki69c399.27$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.251,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed UNiTY esports12c396.27$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.932,46824.6%607 W · 1,861 L-317.8wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-51.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7d1d…c307backed UNiTY esports27c378.08$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.47027.1%19 W · 51 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Walczaki77c355$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.941,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Walczaki69c350$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.538052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked UNiTY esports15c345.68$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.694,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Walczaki68c335.66$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.411963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Walczaki69c334.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8575833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb990…1a3abacked UNiTY esports8c325.12$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258312%10 W · 73 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed UNiTY esports32c315$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.151,07637.6%405 W · 671 L+34.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked UNiTY esports24c312.51$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.274,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e83…00aabacked UNiTY esports29c311$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1917142.1%72 W · 99 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed UNiTY esports29c300.2$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2199148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed UNiTY esports17c299.13$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6568659.5%408 W · 278 L+65.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked UNiTY esports16c291.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.452,32851.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L+92.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Walczaki71c281.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6922567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed UNiTY esports15c271.84$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.922,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked UNiTY esports30c267.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.357967.1%53 W · 26 L+10.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x86ca…bc47backed UNiTY esports26c265.38$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696741.8%28 W · 39 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed UNiTY esports29c264.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.1411348.7%55 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dd…45bbbacked UNiTY esports26c255.5$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked UNiTY esports26c254.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2558745.5%267 W · 320 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3265…cf6bbacked UNiTY esports28c249.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9814331.5%45 W · 98 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed Walczaki69c241$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7133849.7%168 W · 170 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed UNiTY esports18c238.49$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9462248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Walczaki69c229.23$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.441,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8616…3bb0backed UNiTY esports38c226.06$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8555749.7%277 W · 280 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Walczaki70c224.77$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.9669445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e4…dd38backed Walczaki67c221.45$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.2937057%211 W · 159 L+16.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked UNiTY esports29c205.5$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7522455.8%125 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed UNiTY esports16c205.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.831,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked UNiTY esports28c204.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3520957.4%120 W · 89 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Walczaki75c198$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.541475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked UNiTY esports43c181.54$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.797,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed UNiTY esports28c178.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9344552.4%233 W · 212 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a36…9582backed UNiTY esports29c167.35$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3680%0 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed UNiTY esports30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5039955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c5c…1cf7backed UNiTY esports27c166$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.822263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+46.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed Walczaki71c165.54$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1810356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed UNiTY esports27c159$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9425934%88 W · 171 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd325…2482backed UNiTY esports18c158.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.541513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-72.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed UNiTY esports18c151.56$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.032050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Walczaki69c150$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.536057.5%207 W · 153 L+13.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb171…7d2bbacked UNiTY esports30c150$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510561%64 W · 41 L+8.1wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+20.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed UNiTY esports31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.520047.5%95 W · 105 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8884…4349backed UNiTY esports33c149.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501266.7%8 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed UNiTY esports9c147.48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.021,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed UNiTY esports31c145$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9539245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed UNiTY esports13c143.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1925635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed UNiTY esports27c141.34$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5921750.7%110 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.