MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04a940ef1a577ecd459a49cfe05c5f3ce2e992b613adf1c31b1919c2fc8130e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,063 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f22…c4a1backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 22,087$8,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,834.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532a…cc78backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 22,087$13,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,833.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 2,461$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.89 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 1,819$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.66 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Seattle Mariners | 2c | 1,559$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Seattle Mariners | 28c | 1,132$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.97 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,125$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.75 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 864.28$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 824.13$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.38 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 799.99$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 769.23$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6145…3e2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 733.46$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 666.6$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.64 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 622.87$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.61 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 502.67$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 467.89$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.71 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 449.37$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Francisco Giants | 75c | 444.46$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 350.56$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.41 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 323$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Seattle Mariners | 6c | 296.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 291.46$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Seattle Mariners | 8c | 279$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…ee95backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 274.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Seattle Mariners | 5c | 270.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 258.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 206.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 205.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb858…7dc3backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 195.47$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 166.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 165.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 9c | 162.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 159.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 154.89$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Seattle Mariners | 49c | 140$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce7…81a3backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 97.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 91.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 90.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…f7f0backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 86.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…7f1cbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 86.59$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4865…904dbacked San Francisco Giants | 61c | 82.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.06 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 81.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 76.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 62.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked San Francisco Giants | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 45.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bb…a2cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Seattle Mariners | 27c | 44.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…ba79backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 36.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…e152backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 32.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 29.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…d795backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 27.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2658…0084backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 25.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41a…a59abacked Seattle Mariners | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6e…00c3backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…6ab9backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.