Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10dfebccff866554589e2353e7c3247427c48924f8b04522e3c5c828307065e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 162 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x643d…7370backed No | 35c | 2,935$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3873backed Yes | 65c | 1,475$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c4…56a3backed Yes | 65c | 1,460$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 70c | 1,368$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.2 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 6c | 1,170$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 936.8$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 40c | 654.94$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.91 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 9c | 464.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 44c | 454.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 63c | 450$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.1 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 75c | 407.64$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.76 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 37c | 395.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked Yes | 65c | 384.81$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.46 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 69c | 347.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 77c | 326.49$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 322.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 10c | 315.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…c641backed Yes | 55c | 299.98$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 46c | 294.43$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.41 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 36c | 281.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.13 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 67c | 273.62$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.61 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 272.81$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 55c | 266.01$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 66c | 249.63$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 237.81$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.5 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed No | 45c | 222.23$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 56c | 203.83$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.04 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 67c | 201.98$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 35c | 197.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 192.83$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 65c | 190.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 56c | 186$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.91 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…b33dbacked Yes | 55c | 184.01$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +238.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed No | 68c | 175.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 172.2$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 166.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 55c | 161.78$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 160.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 45c | 154.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 54c | 145.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 72c | 144.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 141.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 43c | 140.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 34c | 140$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 37c | 139.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…5596backed No | 18c | 138.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 36c | 138.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 71c | 132.37$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked Yes | 55c | 131.34$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 59c | 121.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 71c | 119.04$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 43c | 114.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 111.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 55c | 110.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 109.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 58c | 103.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 68c | 102.36$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 70c | 101.64$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf760…1334backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…3501backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Yes | 56c | 99.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.98 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 14c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 93.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 92.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 62c | 92.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 34c | 88.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 14c | 87.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 37c | 85.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…a42bbacked Yes | 59c | 84.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 22c | 83.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 67c | 80.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 61c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 40c | 76.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 59c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 72.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 71.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes | 34c | 67.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d18…eae7backed No | 44c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 30c | 66.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…3e59backed Yes | 34c | 66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 58c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 65$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf5…606bbacked Yes | 71c | 64.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 64.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 24c | 63.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 59c | 63.21$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…9eb1backed Yes | 55c | 63.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c974backed Yes | 72c | 62.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…55fbbacked Yes | 55c | 61.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 23c | 57.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…c053backed Yes | 37c | 57.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 44c | 56.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 54°F or higher on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.