Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf20c69661f78cffb63a3792bf5fdd9cbdbcee576505b10e76494cd1e8bd941fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 11,272$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.82 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,652$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa079…45aabacked Yes | 1c | 2,865$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 2,398$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,225$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.62 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…0752backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,656$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.95 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…a94dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,505$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…c514backed Yes | 38c | 1,031$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.78 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,025$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 4c | 896.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 33c | 796.23$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…3210backed Yes | 66c | 579.78$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 573.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.16 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed Yes | 31c | 573.35$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.74 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 67c | 573.09$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 55c | 568.09$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.74 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 33c | 551.06$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 63c | 547.08$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.37 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 534.77$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 29c | 534.42$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 59c | 502.32$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 3c | 482.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 461.47$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 75c | 459.25$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.27 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 447.31$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 24c | 435.04$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 19c | 387.41$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 54c | 376.14$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 344.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 326.22$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.05 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 312.98$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 284.23$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 265.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 69c | 261.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.95 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 21c | 253.13$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 31c | 250.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 247.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 35c | 202.79$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 161$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.18 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 73c | 155.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 155.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 16c | 129.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 26c | 127.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 122.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 122.43$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 47c | 116.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 26c | 112.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f4…45f1backed Yes | 36c | 111.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 18c | 111.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked No | 70c | 111.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 23c | 106.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9860…af5bbacked Yes | 14c | 106.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 32c | 97.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 23c | 90.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 34c | 89.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 63c | 81.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf8…31bcbacked Yes | 30c | 80.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 25c | 79.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 67c | 74.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed Yes | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 28c | 71.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 32c | 70.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 71c | 68.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 29c | 67.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 20c | 65.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 70c | 61.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 32c | 60.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 35c | 59.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 56c | 59.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 58.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…9ec2backed No | 70c | 57.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 36c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 50.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 50.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked No | 73c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 78c | 47.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked No | 72c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 45c | 40.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 59c | 39.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 27c | 38.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.