Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7797335e42747808d9654e33e8280e84e72655c1dee56262cd4f4ffcde2e687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 80c | 1,274$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.46 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked No | 74c | 943.37$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.37 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 19c | 733.14$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.96 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 22c | 511$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 73c | 389.98$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.78 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 13c | 383.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 16c | 324.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 10c | 308.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 17c | 303.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 31c | 299.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 32c | 281.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 27c | 279.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 37c | 272.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 9c | 269.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…a1cfbacked Yes | 21c | 257.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 29c | 249.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 11c | 235.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 65c | 201.6$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 200.99$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 36c | 195.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 66c | 189.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.34 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…d132backed Yes | 27c | 185.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 21c | 180.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 14c | 178.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 70c | 171.45$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f9…1783backed Yes | 31c | 166.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…bfe7backed No | 72c | 165.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 18c | 165.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…b8f8backed Yes | 30c | 164.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 161.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 19c | 158.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 23c | 155.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 154.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 152.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 35c | 152.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 150.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…6293backed Yes | 35c | 141.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…fc85backed Yes | 10c | 135.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed No | 75c | 133.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 129.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…dde1backed No | 79c | 128.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 77c | 124.11$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 69c | 119.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 10c | 106.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…9048backed Yes | 17c | 105.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 25c | 100.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…2a11backed Yes | 31c | 96.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 16c | 92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1211…b173backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ab…8b8dbacked Yes | 16c | 89.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…b4f0backed Yes | 17c | 88.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…6b40backed Yes | 25c | 85.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 82.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 80.69$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 36c | 74.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…5d47backed Yes | 30c | 73.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 15c | 69.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 16c | 68.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb71…8a01backed No | 74c | 64.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked No | 65c | 64.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05d4…ae97backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…45ebbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 25c | 62.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 78c | 61.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3401…2c62backed Yes | 24c | 58.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 58.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 35c | 56.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 35c | 56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed No | 67c | 54.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 30c | 50.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 46.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd428…05a3backed Yes | 32c | 46.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…f426backed Yes | 28c | 46.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x49c1…8c40backed Yes | 26c | 44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…de73backed Yes | 25c | 43.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…9964backed Yes | 36c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…be9dbacked No | 74c | 39.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 50cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5899…4623backed Yes | 33c | 36.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 76c | 33.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…b67fbacked Yes | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 78c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…ba4abacked No | 69c | 26.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe399…b921backed No | 72c | 25.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 64c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 70c | 20.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.