Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a2bf1eca31a1465bdae3cefaa2b5d090a8c0e1d16ccfd7fd935114ed93e24e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,041
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 7,349$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.73 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 1c | 4,700$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 2,852$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 1,908$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 11c | 1,771$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.48 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 2c | 1,584$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe502…fba0backed No | 1c | 1,369$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 1,147$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.58 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed No | 2c | 799.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 2c | 691.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 41c | 567.33$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.64 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 8c | 564.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 68c | 554.59$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.71 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 46c | 502.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.44 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…3210backed Yes | 45c | 500$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 461.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.02 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 443.29$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 21c | 437.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed Yes | 80c | 431.09$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 46c | 402.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.21 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…efd5backed Yes | 50c | 401.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 47c | 399.97$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.97 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 27c | 395.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.59 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 332$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 62c | 321.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccc…49dcbacked Yes | 38c | 314.58$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 307.54$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 66c | 303.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf6…5219backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 31c | 296.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.92 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9393…9cddbacked Yes | 38c | 293.08$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.65 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…0322backed No | 63c | 284.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 56c | 282.46$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.46 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 275.43$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.97 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked Yes | 79c | 241.62$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 228.39$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…2261backed Yes | 36c | 218.32$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 36c | 216.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 216.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…1074backed Yes | 63c | 206.05$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.03 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed Yes | 40c | 205.89$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 204.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…4444backed Yes | 41c | 194.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 64c | 194.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 45c | 193.96$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…70a3backed Yes | 60c | 167.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb93e…f2dcbacked Yes | 73c | 167.28$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 30c | 165.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.18 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 26c | 164.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed Yes | 32c | 162.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 40c | 159.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked Yes | 34c | 159.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 63c | 158.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…b648backed Yes | 48c | 156.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 38c | 156.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 130$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfa…0093backed Yes | 31c | 127.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.29 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 37c | 126.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…c728backed Yes | 38c | 125$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 48c | 124.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 37c | 122.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 118.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4b…dd9dbacked Yes | 36c | 113.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ba…6b30backed Yes | 55c | 113.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 112.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 37c | 112.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 46c | 106.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59c5…b7f7backed Yes | 52c | 96.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 45c | 87.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 87.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01bc…6c9fbacked Yes | 44c | 86.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…428cbacked No | 59c | 84.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 33c | 80.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 47c | 79.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 79.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 79.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 48c | 74.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 43c | 74.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc3…2a11backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 70.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 69.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…190dbacked Yes | 68c | 69.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324b…3fe4backed Yes | 47c | 64.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 44c | 62.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 48c | 62.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 60c | 61.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1286…22c3backed Yes | 42c | 60.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…ea08backed Yes | 41c | 60.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8428…c329backed Yes | 40c | 57.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 51c | 54.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b1…ba4abacked No | 67c | 54.28$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8a…9362backed Yes | 46c | 52.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 58c | 51.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x660b…e5acbacked Yes | 39c | 51.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.