Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23ddd32094cd5442a05849e91a0012b4ebbedb5f16f121fda63703ef7ba1d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 52c | 1,378$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.47 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 47c | 568.21$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.51 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 339.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.41 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 9c | 267.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 214.4$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 59c | 212.03$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 8c | 162.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 56c | 152.62$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 68c | 148.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 117.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 37c | 117.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 106.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 40c | 101.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 63c | 93.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 27c | 87.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 54c | 87.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 57c | 87.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 86.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 48c | 85.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 54c | 81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 53c | 78.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 55c | 52.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 48c | 52.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 50.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 49c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 53c | 41.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 40c | 37.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 48c | 33.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…76b9backed Yes | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 20 | 90%18 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 42c | 26.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 52c | 23.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 61c | 22.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 56c | 18.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 16?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 16?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.