TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fluxo W7Mof Fluxo W7M, LOUD
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$147,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$174,208

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a63…fc03backed LOUD57c9,433$5,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,413.3343542.5%185 W · 250 L+19.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked Fluxo W7M49c7,376$3,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,760.981,54062.6%964 W · 576 L+158.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb515…cd6bbacked Fluxo W7M34c5,060$1,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,331.1112047.5%57 W · 63 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Fluxo W7M13c4,458$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,877.961,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Fluxo W7M32c4,172$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,818.4948440.5%196 W · 288 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Fluxo W7M44c3,749$1,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.543,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked LOUD53c3,694$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.891,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed Fluxo W7M44c3,273$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,841.6853753.6%288 W · 249 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Fluxo W7M16c3,188$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.91,50250.3%756 W · 746 L+71.2wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0188…91babacked Fluxo W7M45c2,149$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,181.8911445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked LOUD61c2,127$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.3385046%391 W · 459 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked LOUD72c2,099$1,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,511.2537245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78e2…5588backed Fluxo W7M68c1,993$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640.086369.8%44 W · 19 L+11.7wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1064…f153backed Fluxo W7M23c1,908$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.5549549.1%243 W · 252 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed Fluxo W7M54c1,826$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$847.21,22945.1%554 W · 675 L+48.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked LOUD48c1,604$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.031,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked LOUD73c1,590$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,160.8619745.2%89 W · 108 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea58…930fbacked Fluxo W7M28c1,531$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.231,21644.4%540 W · 676 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked LOUD23c1,524$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.872,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed LOUD60c1,508$899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.441,96548.4%951 W · 1,014 L+27.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed LOUD30c1,367$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.6532542.2%137 W · 188 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba90…b283backed LOUD4c1,258$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7416925.4%43 W · 126 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+15.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb003…d962backed Fluxo W7M28c1,025$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.179151.8%410 W · 381 L+15.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe74b…ee88backed LOUD56c985.16$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.3886451.4%444 W · 420 L+52.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x62c6…ab7bbacked Fluxo W7M47c968.04$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.6384360.7%512 W · 331 L+44.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed LOUD54c966.41$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5232,91038.5%1,120 W · 1,790 L-120.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Fluxo W7M27c867.38$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.1864849.8%323 W · 325 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a1…d6ecbacked LOUD68c866.36$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.4347150.7%239 W · 232 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Fluxo W7M37c825.87$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.2966845.5%304 W · 364 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce15…43b7backed Fluxo W7M79c818.45$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.6912970.5%91 W · 38 L+16.5wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+12.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x012d…9db6backed LOUD26c810.66$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0211563.5%73 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed LOUD73c806.59$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.1451044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd11d…5656backed Fluxo W7M27c799.98$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.4950647.2%239 W · 267 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed LOUD65c690.92$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.176642%322 W · 444 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd046…416ebacked Fluxo W7M71c687.78$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.137646.1%35 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LOUD23c682.56$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.673,15933.8%1,068 W · 2,091 L-152.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3333…3c23backed LOUD71c662.98$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.2428042.5%119 W · 161 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe607…eaa0backed LOUD77c661.6$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.0910467.3%70 W · 34 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Fluxo W7M48c650.43$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8110350.5%52 W · 51 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked LOUD59c641.88$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.9195541.7%398 W · 557 L-31.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed LOUD65c637.3$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.2485942.7%367 W · 492 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed Fluxo W7M27c630.06$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.9534837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9e4…c4b2backed Fluxo W7M80c619.66$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.2326861.6%165 W · 103 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Fluxo W7M31c587.53$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.441945.1%189 W · 230 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked LOUD43c586.55$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.851,00842.5%428 W · 580 L-24.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed LOUD23c585.89$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.261,73029.5%510 W · 1,220 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7605…e225backed Fluxo W7M59c585.42$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.125468.5%37 W · 17 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed LOUD64c584.72$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.8569539.1%272 W · 423 L-36.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x826c…cd27backed LOUD25c579.43$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.098245.1%37 W · 45 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Fluxo W7M17c577.21$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.091,80251.2%923 W · 879 L+53.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed LOUD72c564.06$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.781,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b12…a752backed Fluxo W7M42c553.93$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked LOUD29c552.1$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.5215821.5%34 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed LOUD12c548.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.221,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked LOUD33c542.02$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1173237.7%276 W · 456 L-51.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Fluxo W7M49c527.64$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.81,09147.4%517 W · 574 L-2.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Fluxo W7M16c522.52$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.9218121%38 W · 143 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7809…64ccbacked Fluxo W7M14c500$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43017431%54 W · 120 L-0.5wins0.00per pick31cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed LOUD44c495.89$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8750749.7%252 W · 255 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked LOUD33c469.82$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.682,70735.9%972 W · 1,735 L-152.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa430…c6f9backed LOUD21c453.62$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2626150.6%132 W · 129 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53a5…55dfbacked Fluxo W7M52c446.82$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.843358.2%252 W · 181 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed LOUD74c400$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.872,52147.3%1,193 W · 1,328 L-34.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked LOUD77c398.08$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3963646.9%298 W · 338 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Fluxo W7M14c386.13$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.089131.9%29 W · 62 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-20.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc397…bb3bbacked Fluxo W7M56c347.34$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.611,67559.3%993 W · 682 L+96.8wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked LOUD16c345.7$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1720826.9%56 W · 152 L-13.2wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-48.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x51d9…8116backed Fluxo W7M15c345.24$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.91741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick27cpaid+94.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Fluxo W7M28c345.22$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.561,11435%390 W · 724 L+14.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Fluxo W7M16c342.63$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.4690937.3%339 W · 570 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed LOUD56c322.12$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3839246.4%182 W · 210 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x709d…0a62backed LOUD31c318.02$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2626052.7%137 W · 123 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Fluxo W7M57c317.15$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.350041.6%208 W · 292 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Fluxo W7M11c314.02$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9486144.1%380 W · 481 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked LOUD57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17186649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410c…d091backed Fluxo W7M16c299.29$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.48434.5%29 W · 55 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Fluxo W7M20c294.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.9245937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20c5…7452backed LOUD38c288.78$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed LOUD17c280.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.717325.4%44 W · 129 L-19.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2489…ee90backed Fluxo W7M17c279.47$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.967037.1%26 W · 44 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked LOUD13c278.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.191,01955.8%569 W · 450 L+22.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed Fluxo W7M50c275.57$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.5644129.5%130 W · 311 L-45.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x081f…d5c0backed LOUD73c269.53$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.762853.6%15 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick64cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb416…32eabacked Fluxo W7M54c260.67$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.243672.2%26 W · 10 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+33.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7586…6490backed Fluxo W7M12c258.51$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.34057.5%23 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80d6…ef9dbacked Fluxo W7M76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601020%2 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd10b…2f6dbacked Fluxo W7M6c250$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2354100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+521.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed LOUD73c245.95$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5432941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Fluxo W7M23c238.48$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.6937548%180 W · 195 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aad…88d4backed LOUD6c235.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1528827.4%79 W · 209 L-30.6wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x00a1…df06backed LOUD59c230.4$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5815944%70 W · 89 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…c5e1backed Fluxo W7M44c230.13$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.586753.7%36 W · 31 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cba…3ec4backed Fluxo W7M44c219.64$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1231,54543.7%675 W · 870 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb223…3772backed Fluxo W7M9c219.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.7739445.2%178 W · 216 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2425…9becbacked Fluxo W7M26c214.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.874124.4%10 W · 31 L-6.4wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xeea6…135fbacked LOUD35c206.56$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7753139.9%212 W · 319 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57f9…895dbacked Fluxo W7M57c206$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.5810954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a02…a770backed Fluxo W7M28c200.85$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.611,37248.6%667 W · 705 L+57.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b63…4d96backed Fluxo W7M7c200$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1862347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf901…5f48backed Fluxo W7M17c171.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.965547.3%26 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.