TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBR.LOSof MIBR.LOS, LYON
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$554,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$645,363

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa57d…701fbacked LYON40c32,821$13,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,091.0412446%57 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MIBR.LOS44c21,222$9,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,884.3153750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed LYON46c20,732$9,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,626.949542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked MIBR.LOS59c14,097$8,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,831.311838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MIBR.LOS46c13,695$6,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,445.711,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked LYON56c12,637$7,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,076.8367760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MIBR.LOS39c11,574$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,038.721,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked MIBR.LOS16c10,440$1,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,752.1242149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed LYON1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023445.7%107 W · 127 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked MIBR.LOS26c10,000$2,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,359.9625944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1025…fbfabacked LYON0c9,278$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3951454.5%280 W · 234 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked MIBR.LOS44c8,486$3,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,742.971,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed LYON54c8,365$4,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,515.8113561.5%83 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed LYON74c7,836$5,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,832.961,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked MIBR.LOS44c6,965$3,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,921.931,29545.1%584 W · 711 L+49.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc607…748ebacked LYON54c6,642$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6007038.6%27 W · 43 L-9.0wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc387…5a97backed LYON66c6,472$4,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,252.0960354.7%330 W · 273 L-2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed LYON68c5,706$3,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.3969741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ab…cdafbacked LYON2c5,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked LYON2c5,500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked LYON49c5,460$2,686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.9412045%54 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6842…20d0backed MIBR.LOS62c5,194$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.581,01147.1%476 W · 535 L+21.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4840…41f3backed LYON1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50623.2%2 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed MIBR.LOS58c4,713$2,734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.554060%24 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf3a9…b216backed LYON1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed MIBR.LOS60c4,439$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,782.2314360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked MIBR.LOS45c4,351$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.888933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed MIBR.LOS44c3,933$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,220.9730546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6978…9897backed MIBR.LOS33c3,926$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.748949.4%44 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58a3…5336backed LYON59c3,889$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.346663.6%42 W · 24 L+9.3wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed MIBR.LOS49c3,730$1,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,910.337847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…a2cbbacked LYON72c3,588$2,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.224554.3%133 W · 112 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed LYON71c3,521$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.911,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe197…71ebbacked MIBR.LOS64c3,306$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.7127745.8%127 W · 150 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MIBR.LOS33c3,250$1,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.992,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed MIBR.LOS46c3,205$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.1297427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed LYON11c2,970$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.853225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed LYON1c2,895$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.952522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec37…85bdbacked LYON49c2,866$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.869040%36 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked MIBR.LOS53c2,814$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.84751.1%24 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed MIBR.LOS40c2,539$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.9764247.4%304 W · 338 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed MIBR.LOS80c2,439$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.5455844.6%249 W · 309 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked MIBR.LOS60c2,370$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.2129945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed MIBR.LOS17c2,353$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,952.9412236.9%45 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b1…a837backed LYON64c2,325$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.651428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-51.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MIBR.LOS16c2,135$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.8537640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed MIBR.LOS56c2,108$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.9876639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x000e…f7e9backed MIBR.LOS47c2,000$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.7689943.4%390 W · 509 L+22.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb589…91e3backed MIBR.LOS53c1,786$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.4851348%246 W · 267 L+25.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed LYON41c1,780$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.7913240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed MIBR.LOS52c1,704$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.482,50839.8%999 W · 1,509 L-76.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed LYON73c1,670$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,219.4515352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6bb…c0aabacked MIBR.LOS58c1,600$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67233058.5%193 W · 137 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcea4…be49backed LYON7c1,554$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7812717.3%22 W · 105 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked LYON45c1,549$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.6337245.2%168 W · 204 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed MIBR.LOS20c1,500$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,19532844.2%145 W · 183 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed LYON3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd4…1fabbacked LYON2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6d…33e2backed LYON2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked MIBR.LOS57c1,500$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6401,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50f9…c327backed LYON67c1,470$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.964358.1%25 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked LYON40c1,450$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.679833.7%33 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1311…b275backed MIBR.LOS17c1,439$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.423243.8%14 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+31.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LYON62c1,380$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.431,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa469…0782backed MIBR.LOS20c1,352$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,082.281,32253.2%703 W · 619 L+36.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed MIBR.LOS42c1,303$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.7447838.7%185 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MIBR.LOS18c1,250$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0251,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe896…a4c7backed MIBR.LOS42c1,234$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.5627962.4%174 W · 105 L+20.8wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x10ef…7d7bbacked MIBR.LOS54c1,229$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.2266559.5%396 W · 269 L+72.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked MIBR.LOS39c1,186$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.6417444.8%78 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed MIBR.LOS53c1,141$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.289347%420 W · 473 L+44.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x71f5…1aecbacked MIBR.LOS58c1,140$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.421828.4%62 W · 156 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+0.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed08…e082backed LYON54c1,102$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60019860.1%119 W · 79 L-0.3wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6b…96e1backed MIBR.LOS61c1,062$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.612020%4 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+58.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MIBR.LOS18c1,055$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.843,58440.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L+31.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c5…6394backed LYON45c1,043$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4708726.4%23 W · 64 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed MIBR.LOS65c1,008$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.9712869.5%89 W · 39 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaff…5cb1backed LYON2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed MIBR.LOS50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50022746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9348…6664backed LYON67c999.99$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67028859%170 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed LYON57c999.97$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.987450%37 W · 37 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcae6…4f85backed MIBR.LOS36c978.89$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.9267276.9%517 W · 155 L+87.3wins+0.13per pick64cpaid+30.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked LYON72c972.22$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked MIBR.LOS50c956.98$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.0811357.5%65 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c2f…d8c2backed LYON52c940.37$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.513250%16 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed LYON68c940$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.843,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa844…83b8backed LYON55c917.16$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.6862158.8%365 W · 256 L+32.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked LYON42c900$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37886649.7%430 W · 436 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked MIBR.LOS34c894.58$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.5998956.8%562 W · 427 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MIBR.LOS46c881.93$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.031,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7a…8238backed MIBR.LOS28c873.09$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.114735.4%52 W · 95 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed MIBR.LOS15c865$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.8659554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed MIBR.LOS50c846.59$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.2239162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked LYON60c833.33$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8812…c41abacked MIBR.LOS16c824.01$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.3925551.4%131 W · 124 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd52…aa25backed LYON62c807.3$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012436.3%45 W · 79 L-16.3wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-25.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4cd2…4cb9backed LYON3c800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24280%0 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69b9…a5d5backed MIBR.LOS48c780.33$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.927247.8%130 W · 142 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked LYON58c777$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.11,60948.4%779 W · 830 L+24.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e81…8b41backed LYON7c776$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3210517.1%18 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.