TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: MIBR.LOS vs LYON - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MIBR.LOSof MIBR.LOS, LYON
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,230,527
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,453,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,230,527 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 470 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed MIBR.LOS37c333,227$122,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210,536.4722451.8%116 W · 108 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked LYON66c65,000$42,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,75057246%263 W · 309 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed LYON59c51,526$30,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,208.5769741.5%289 W · 408 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed LYON63c48,936$30,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,658.851,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec8…3a77backed LYON58c41,766$24,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,127.799542.1%40 W · 55 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed LYON61c32,437$19,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,682.786556.9%37 W · 28 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe405…c67ebacked LYON62c30,581$18,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,960.2467760.4%409 W · 268 L+42.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed MIBR.LOS35c29,609$10,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,156.631,59253.7%855 W · 737 L+57.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…fb57backed LYON66c25,354$16,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,717.187156.3%40 W · 31 L-9.1wins-0.13per pick69cpaid-17.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked MIBR.LOS39c20,379$7,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,385.1790348.4%437 W · 466 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc568…1a8cbacked MIBR.LOS43c19,000$8,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,857.241838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b0…8bf3backed LYON71c18,888$13,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,410.4315153.6%81 W · 70 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-2.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed LYON60c18,180$10,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,988.848149.7%239 W · 242 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec7f…ab9ebacked LYON61c17,497$10,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,592.974751.1%24 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed MIBR.LOS40c17,130$6,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,351.7453750.5%271 W · 266 L+14.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed LYON62c14,443$8,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,952.4914360.8%87 W · 56 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed MIBR.LOS42c14,127$5,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,217.871,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…e9cabacked MIBR.LOS57c12,402$7,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,337.451,53662.6%961 W · 575 L+157.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+8.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed MIBR.LOS28c10,792$3,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,784.7438235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed MIBR.LOS35c10,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.991,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed LYON2c9,500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked LYON61c9,431$5,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,78037640.2%151 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed LYON63c8,600$5,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,43813240.9%54 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed MIBR.LOS32c8,375$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,717.8881143.5%353 W · 458 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed LYON67c8,076$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,399.7230845.1%139 W · 169 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked MIBR.LOS80c8,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64028544.9%128 W · 157 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked LYON63c8,000$5,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,04030945.3%140 W · 169 L+1.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed MIBR.LOS60c8,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,20021056.7%119 W · 91 L-14.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-10.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked MIBR.LOS30c7,691$2,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,419.0229945.8%137 W · 162 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf496…fe79backed LYON21c7,447$1,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.130546.9%143 W · 162 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MIBR.LOS39c7,000$2,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,2601,06747%502 W · 565 L+3.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed LYON61c6,634$4,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,046.7313561.5%83 W · 52 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked LYON57c6,551$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,747.0142149.2%207 W · 214 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed LYON48c6,451$3,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,095.4976639.6%303 W · 463 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed MIBR.LOS34c6,357$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,195.6254756.9%311 W · 236 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed MIBR.LOS37c5,579$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,516.5632150.2%161 W · 160 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x37ab…cdafbacked LYON2c5,201$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.01150%0 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed LYON62c5,188$3,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,230.686844.1%30 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed LYON60c5,017$3,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,010.285836.2%311 W · 547 L-14.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed LYON1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5082953.4%443 W · 386 L-3.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4eb…1a6ebacked MIBR.LOS40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.998933.7%30 W · 59 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked MIBR.LOS34c4,815$1,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,177.91,21254.5%660 W · 552 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed LYON67c4,509$3,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,014.424944.9%22 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc11…4b4abacked LYON1c4,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%0 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…68b5backed LYON61c4,300$2,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,643.994060%24 W · 16 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed LYON62c4,027$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4972748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked MIBR.LOS29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8402,00458.2%1,166 W · 838 L+86.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x946f…518cbacked LYON72c3,974$2,847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,846.881330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a9c…fc2bbacked MIBR.LOS75c3,927$2,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.725332%81 W · 172 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4840…41f3backed LYON1c3,873$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.73623.2%2 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd501…b86ebacked LYON48c3,750$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,797.512045%54 W · 66 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x092b…614ebacked LYON61c3,607$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20015644.2%69 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed MIBR.LOS40c3,500$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1001,30555.9%729 W · 576 L+44.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed MIBR.LOS32c3,484$1,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,385.319556.8%54 W · 41 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked LYON63c3,443$2,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,159.4287844.2%388 W · 490 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc746…3943backed LYON61c3,345$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0381457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed LYON54c3,341$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.9986943.2%375 W · 494 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed LYON72c3,260$2,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,362.991,52150.6%769 W · 752 L+3.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed LYON64c3,166$2,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.2238439.8%153 W · 231 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5809…9868backed LYON30c3,107$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.1797427.8%271 W · 703 L-23.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d49…7cc0backed LYON72c3,072$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.017450%37 W · 37 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-17%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed LYON33c3,058$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.2141347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3a9…b216backed LYON3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a6d…33e2backed LYON3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90166.3%1 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick2cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed LYON69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07017250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed LYON1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302522%5 W · 247 L+0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid-93.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c4…f745backed LYON59c3,000$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7709955.6%55 W · 44 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed LYON59c2,976$1,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.011,80639.1%707 W · 1,099 L-30.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe32a…1f66backed LYON11c2,970$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.853225%8 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed LYON62c2,900$1,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.0631337.7%118 W · 195 L-15.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5266…22acbacked MIBR.LOS49c2,880$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,476.4511357.5%65 W · 48 L+7.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb72…6532backed LYON63c2,870$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,808.147847.4%37 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked LYON20c2,747$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.4563944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked LYON57c2,637$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030554.8%167 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d5c…d8f2backed LYON74c2,580$1,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,909.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked LYON61c2,548$1,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.999833.7%33 W · 65 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab44…7ffebacked LYON20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025944.8%116 W · 143 L+19.1wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed LYON61c2,500$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,53032045.6%146 W · 174 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc827…ff0fbacked LYON2c2,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60260%0 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked MIBR.LOS51c2,500$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.445937%170 W · 289 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53f2…5343backed LYON63c2,381$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50012236.9%45 W · 77 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6f1…5729backed LYON70c2,357$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,650.1516162.1%100 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68a6…e96bbacked LYON44c2,250$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.51,21848.7%593 W · 625 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed MIBR.LOS35c2,175$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.211,11339%434 W · 679 L-44.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked LYON65c2,141$1,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38749451.8%256 W · 238 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75b…e377backed LYON70c2,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40014753.1%78 W · 69 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddd4…1fabbacked LYON3c2,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee7c…70f2backed MIBR.LOS35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30048533.6%163 W · 322 L+23.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fbc…f944backed LYON60c2,000$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20546263.9%295 W · 167 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked LYON22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44024326.7%65 W · 178 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed LYON64c2,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9991854%496 W · 422 L-1.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed LYON64c1,861$1,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.2158559.7%349 W · 236 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed LYON56c1,809$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.19253.3%49 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed LYON48c1,800$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.1922640.7%92 W · 134 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked LYON61c1,692$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.0866843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x412d…18c5backed LYON74c1,689$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.2944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked LYON51c1,631$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.32,31139.4%910 W · 1,401 L-83.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a96…7a34backed MIBR.LOS25c1,567$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,167.772544%11 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x05e4…8d31backed MIBR.LOS40c1,555$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.412955.2%16 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+32.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MIBR.LOS56c1,505$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.941,67157.9%968 W · 703 L+70.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.