TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes35c730.04$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.989544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba63…36dcbacked Yes33c325.27$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.6740237.1%149 W · 253 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes36c294$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.9117140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No44c258.68$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.456,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c248.26$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.2212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes31c237.14$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.338943.8%39 W · 50 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No43c218.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.253,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c205.57$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.579,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c198.6$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.2717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes66c186.83$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.743450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c170.86$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.712,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb427…4c62backed No78c161.24$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3622350.7%113 W · 110 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c158.05$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.71,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No34c155.01$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes69c154.55$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes30c143.98$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.2974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…3c46backed Yes30c140.95$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.433831.6%12 W · 26 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No64c137.08$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.113,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No48c124.6$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.45,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c121.02$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.791,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No68c113.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.982,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes50c106.79$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1961365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No60c99.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.741,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed Yes36c99.35$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1531124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No71c97.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No71c97.59$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.255,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No68c96.99$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No77c91.8$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.271,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes25c88.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No71c84.72$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.013,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80cb…4629backed Yes24c82.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2315321.6%33 W · 120 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No68c82.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes28c75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2260739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes28c72.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.592,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No69c65.22$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.044,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No23c65.13$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.972,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No53c64.36$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No70c64$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.880560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No36c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.374,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06f…2857backed Yes34c58.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.63728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No49c58.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c57.46$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.372,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c53.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.691,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8a6a…b380backed Yes46c53.69$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.192755.6%15 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+51.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes32c53.11$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c49.98$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.993,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes33c49.03$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7647538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff7…dbfabacked No70c47.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4810081%81 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.08per pick73cpaid+10.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c46.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.835,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No44c43.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No67c42.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.247,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b0…e7b7backed No77c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81,58578.5%1,244 W · 341 L+39.7wins+0.03per pick76cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes29c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.334633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd464…5dc0backed Yes36c35.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05ee…93abbacked No70c35.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.858872.7%64 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No67c34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7899949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No64c33.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.451,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No67c32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.562,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No56c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.31,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c30$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.43,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No74c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.295,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No34c29.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes47c28.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.457368.5%50 W · 23 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f98…e397backed No76c28.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9233154.4%180 W · 151 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No57c27.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No73c25.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.42,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No80c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No78c25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.528270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x641c…b22fbacked Yes63c22.35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+9.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked No68c22.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No67c21.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.232,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No70c20.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.232,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.646452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No75c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.848261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No68c19.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.582562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No60c18.84$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.219262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed No77c18.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No65c18.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.992,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes71c18.17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3120358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked No69c17.48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No69c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.752,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No68c17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.52,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No70c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No76c13.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.32,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No78c13$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.