NBA · resolved market

Mavericks vs. Suns

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3f0f204ef2173cc444b53416370bf4f680188372ecc0406e55bb69edd494d81

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunsof Mavericks, Suns
Resolved: Oct 27, 2024, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $65,822
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,822 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ff0…46e3backed Mavericks	30c	10,881$3,265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,264.54	476	56.5%269 W · 207 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Suns	75c	8,466$6,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,116.42	98	68.4%67 W · 31 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Suns	39c	7,204$2,809 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,395.1	1,782	28%499 W · 1,283 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Mavericks	60c	6,497$3,898 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,897.67	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6761…a94fbacked Mavericks	59c	4,606$2,736 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,736	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns	40c	2,888$1,155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,733.04	1,451	49.7%721 W · 730 L	+18.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks	32c	2,870$909 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$908.64	228	32%73 W · 155 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x738d…4df6backed Mavericks	31c	2,395$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$746.3	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Mavericks	21c	1,970$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.4	615	32.2%198 W · 417 L	-21.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Suns	79c	1,823$1,438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.86	259	39%101 W · 158 L	-6.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dd1…7918backed Suns	40c	1,400$560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$840	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Suns	51c	1,270$645 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$625.5	265	47.9%127 W · 138 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Suns	42c	1,244$524 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.9	1,090	35.8%390 W · 700 L	+40.1wins	+0.04per pick	32cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7966…3fa1backed Mavericks	61c	1,233$747 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$747	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Mavericks	39c	1,000$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.87	1,290	44%567 W · 723 L	+35.0wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Suns	40c	1,000$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600	138	57.2%79 W · 59 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc0…021dbacked Mavericks	62c	997.47$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.38	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	+3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5be6…64f9backed Suns	80c	933.21$747 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.64	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.8wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x33cc…a0b6backed Mavericks	38c	900$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	184	37.5%69 W · 115 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3195…a94fbacked Suns	64c	680$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.8	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f2a5backed Mavericks	60c	650$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb6…3087backed Mavericks	61c	624.89$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.18	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.22per pick	62cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Mavericks	58c	571.52$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.48	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x56a6…56f4backed Mavericks	18c	554.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe976…dab5backed Suns	78c	510.45$398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.3	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb4e0…b310backed Mavericks	59c	500$295 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	60cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x442b…5410backed Mavericks	38c	500$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5380…28debacked Mavericks	60c	419.26$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.56	148	52.7%78 W · 70 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c8…e7acbacked Suns	40c	400$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Suns	41c	399.95$164 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.97	122	47.5%58 W · 64 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc0…53ddbacked Suns	43c	360.47$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.47	54	57.4%31 W · 23 L	+13.2wins	+0.24per pick	33cpaid	+76.8%equal weight	69+0.17 edge/pick
0xe663…6462backed Mavericks	28c	267.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	-3.7wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…715cbacked Mavericks	56c	267.37$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	83	47%39 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Mavericks	54c	227.14$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.3	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9b…0f44backed Suns	59c	208.24$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.38	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	+2.5wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x955f…17d4backed Mavericks	19c	200$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8c7…053ebacked Suns	38c	199.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e4f…446cbacked Mavericks	60c	178.48$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.09	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bab…50aabacked Suns	77c	171.54$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.82	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+14%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Suns	41c	171.29$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.18	701	47.8%335 W · 366 L	+15.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc845…9d87backed Mavericks	61c	164.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7685…e082backed Mavericks	30c	151.99$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.06	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+102.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Suns	39c	149.99$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91	774	37.5%290 W · 484 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…e0c9backed Mavericks	61c	146.86$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	85	37.6%32 W · 53 L	-10.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcdf5…2865backed Mavericks	36c	145.82$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf65e…3850backed Suns	46c	109.63$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.63	243	36.2%88 W · 155 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1b…7ccabacked Mavericks	61c	100$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	151	49%74 W · 77 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256a…1c70backed Suns	40c	100$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	59	39%23 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Mavericks	36c	100$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Suns	42c	99.97$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.98	1,166	54.4%634 W · 532 L	+19.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Suns	41c	99$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.41	930	41.9%390 W · 540 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c51…d903backed Mavericks	58c	70.04$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.62	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0190…c434backed Suns	41c	60.98$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.98	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3710…9ca7backed Mavericks	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Suns	40c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	87	14.9%13 W · 74 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e2…dc28backed Suns	40c	49.9$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.94	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5be…8728backed Suns	41c	48.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.78	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde96…5290backed Suns	43c	46.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.51	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.13per pick	49cpaid	+26.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xddfb…c994backed Suns	45c	44.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.56	21	57.1%12 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87c5…4fa3backed Mavericks	59c	42.37$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-5.0wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0760…c72ebacked Mavericks	61c	40.98$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c0…de1cbacked Mavericks	55c	40.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.46	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b0…9da7backed Mavericks	62c	40.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	52	57.7%30 W · 22 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7235…501bbacked Mavericks	43c	39.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7439…40d2backed Mavericks	31c	38.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	248	44%109 W · 139 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e2…e186backed Mavericks	59c	33.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.8wins	-0.25per pick	35cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0bd6…d874backed Suns	77c	31.08$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.08	76	50%38 W · 38 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b8…918bbacked Mavericks	65c	30.77$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-58.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c79…15dbbacked Suns	69c	28.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.99	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+3.2wins	+0.09per pick	52cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd59f…33e8backed Mavericks	61c	27.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8b…f655backed Mavericks	57c	26$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e1…2c3abacked Suns	43c	26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.82	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.3wins	+0.44per pick	56cpaid	+85%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9848…e696backed Mavericks	58c	25.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	57cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5138…1d4dbacked Mavericks	64c	25.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	96	45.8%44 W · 52 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1872…1962backed Suns	43c	25.45$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.45	91	54.9%50 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08a5…6e66backed Mavericks	60c	25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	39	66.7%26 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	73cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0e8…2688backed Suns	42c	24.97$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.48	59	32.2%19 W · 40 L	-9.7wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcab1…b2b1backed Mavericks	60c	23.44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-4.1wins	-0.17per pick	65cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5947…1805backed Mavericks	59c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-3.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7b16…9bc6backed Mavericks	57c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Mavericks vs. Suns

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market