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Tennis · resolved market

Samsun: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dan Addedof Dan Added, Lucas Poullain
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$159,487

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x076d…8d4cbacked Dan Added29c34,502$9,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,591.424,40752.3%2,304 W · 2,103 L+66.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lucas Poullain60c24,764$14,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,785.749,26736.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L-199.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Lucas Poullain72c11,196$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,016.074,30545%1,939 W · 2,366 L+20.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lucas Poullain26c8,436$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.3811,87743.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L+19.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Lucas Poullain74c7,384$5,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,462.053,77642.6%1,608 W · 2,168 L-44.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Lucas Poullain15c6,568$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.955,03138.5%1,939 W · 3,092 L-20.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lucas Poullain12c3,381$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.784,52351.7%2,340 W · 2,183 L+135.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06e…f2f9backed Lucas Poullain31c3,220$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004837.5%18 W · 30 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Lucas Poullain16c3,037$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.971,60624.4%392 W · 1,214 L-41.3wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lucas Poullain27c2,915$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.268,92142.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L-169.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Lucas Poullain12c2,676$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.9164440.7%262 W · 382 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bd2…fa7fbacked Dan Added23c2,125$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.4413050.8%66 W · 64 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+20.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf12f…b30fbacked Dan Added56c1,786$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7174840.9%306 W · 442 L+3.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c10…b6a4backed Lucas Poullain36c1,769$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.4919347.7%92 W · 101 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lucas Poullain38c1,716$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.826,58454.4%3,584 W · 3,000 L+286.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Lucas Poullain64c1,585$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,018.414,64767.7%3,147 W · 1,500 L+308.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Dan Added24c1,177$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$892.3727346.9%128 W · 145 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Dan Added70c899.18$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.022,06148.6%1,002 W · 1,059 L+35.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Lucas Poullain29c803.63$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.1770537.6%265 W · 440 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Lucas Poullain42c790.65$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.363,39748.6%1,652 W · 1,745 L-47.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb76b…d1f0backed Dan Added48c769.14$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.095549.1%27 W · 28 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7544…e3aebacked Dan Added51c731$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.1919045.8%87 W · 103 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Dan Added61c644.71$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.586,70050.8%3,401 W · 3,299 L+267.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Lucas Poullain46c589$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.71,63352.7%860 W · 773 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9f…6561backed Lucas Poullain17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004727.7%13 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Dan Added75c573.22$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.582,08846.7%975 W · 1,113 L+19.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Lucas Poullain18c515$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.564,70848.3%2,275 W · 2,433 L+36.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…3a93backed Lucas Poullain23c463.51$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10517446.6%81 W · 93 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Lucas Poullain16c401$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.161,86341.1%765 W · 1,098 L-32.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7547…d158backed Lucas Poullain42c397.62$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.017,15739.8%2,848 W · 4,309 L-9.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Lucas Poullain22c369.21$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.675,60048.5%2,717 W · 2,883 L+10.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Lucas Poullain37c360.92$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.071,23446.3%571 W · 663 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a60…7b81backed Dan Added59c355.26$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9418356.3%103 W · 80 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Lucas Poullain37c353.96$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.482,07652.9%1,099 W · 977 L+33.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a51…1e9fbacked Dan Added58c344.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9121842.2%92 W · 126 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2998…06c7backed Dan Added60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.33475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dan Added64c324.79$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.432,88247.2%1,360 W · 1,522 L+39.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Lucas Poullain29c316.15$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3823530.2%71 W · 164 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lucas Poullain28c282.35$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.426,79836.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168c…f24bbacked Dan Added58c275.86$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8663757.3%365 W · 272 L-21.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae75…9fd7backed Lucas Poullain46c272.89$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.536248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lucas Poullain5c213.75$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.158,12750.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L+84.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6739…132cbacked Dan Added63c212.6$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4126…e68bbacked Lucas Poullain51c207$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.631,15969%800 W · 359 L+56.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Dan Added25c200.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.621,25752%654 W · 603 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a2e…37cabacked Dan Added54c185.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.447962%49 W · 30 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xba86…9ab0backed Dan Added54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1969239.5%273 W · 419 L-28.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f7…b16dbacked Dan Added63c174.9$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.929254.1%158 W · 134 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Lucas Poullain39c174$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4856153.7%301 W · 260 L+14.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Lucas Poullain30c167.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.193,75245.3%1,700 W · 2,052 L-2.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Dan Added30c166.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.671,67553.1%889 W · 786 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Lucas Poullain49c164$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7155941.9%234 W · 325 L-27.0wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Lucas Poullain61c157.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.031,81546.5%844 W · 971 L-6.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9183…59f0backed Dan Added39c153.64$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6420039%78 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Lucas Poullain35c137.14$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487829.5%23 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Dan Added53c135.65$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.085,48656.3%3,088 W · 2,398 L+232.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc72…cd13backed Lucas Poullain41c124$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1197852%509 W · 469 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Dan Added34c117.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.652,63946.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Dan Added34c113.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.123,30340.2%1,329 W · 1,974 L+22.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Dan Added72c110.81$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.761,85246.6%863 W · 989 L+19.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaa1…d5dabacked Dan Added27c103.7$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.751942.6%221 W · 298 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92d8…a656backed Dan Added57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437361.6%45 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Dan Added69c98.07$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8543144.8%193 W · 238 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe723…f14ebacked Dan Added65c94.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.523568.6%24 W · 11 L+5.5wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6c5c…91fcbacked Dan Added66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9146451.1%237 W · 227 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…11a3backed Dan Added55c86.05$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.052,27458%1,318 W · 956 L-10.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f1d…2fb6backed Lucas Poullain45c83.04$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.371,59942.3%676 W · 923 L+19.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Dan Added63c80.95$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.953,45738.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L-15.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb8e…3dc3backed Lucas Poullain25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018337.7%69 W · 114 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+25.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Lucas Poullain43c78.54$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.777,22749.7%3,591 W · 3,636 L+118.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd215…757abacked Dan Added57c75.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3231952.7%168 W · 151 L+0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Lucas Poullain46c74.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.274,08145.7%1,867 W · 2,214 L-30.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked Dan Added56c70$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.839764.7%257 W · 140 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…c3d9backed Dan Added60c69.95$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9850268.3%343 W · 159 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x125a…df71backed Lucas Poullain22c69.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.081,10449.7%549 W · 555 L+46.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1435backed Lucas Poullain42c67.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.339035.9%140 W · 250 L-61.1wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Lucas Poullain46c67.8$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.239451.3%202 W · 192 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Dan Added68c66.18$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1884260.9%513 W · 329 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea3…a6a2backed Dan Added72c64.96$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.433,23857.3%1,854 W · 1,384 L+179.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f6…1ac8backed Lucas Poullain19c62.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.883432.4%11 W · 23 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-29.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6f00…5396backed Dan Added59c60$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.62653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Lucas Poullain49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.46761.2%41 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56f1…e83ebacked Lucas Poullain52c57.69$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3026253.8%141 W · 121 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4093…5749backed Dan Added64c57.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.652,89249.6%1,433 W · 1,459 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Lucas Poullain39c55.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7455149.7%274 W · 277 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ea6…9223backed Lucas Poullain18c55.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.146642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x571f…1d37backed Dan Added73c54.15$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.761,08154.9%593 W · 488 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Lucas Poullain38c48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2429851.7%154 W · 144 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Lucas Poullain42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205,37728.9%1,553 W · 3,824 L-20.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Dan Added47c46.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0833165%215 W · 116 L+22.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Lucas Poullain43c46.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2048139.9%192 W · 289 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Lucas Poullain43c43.82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8487650.3%441 W · 435 L+23.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Lucas Poullain44c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9231347.6%149 W · 164 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Lucas Poullain51c43$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9739751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9755…ab85backed Lucas Poullain48c41.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9435851.7%185 W · 173 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6522…3a5abacked Dan Added35c40.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9811247.3%53 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Dan Added66c39.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.61,62949%798 W · 831 L-51.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc9…ab1cbacked Lucas Poullain46c37.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.25038%19 W · 31 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xccf4…c2eabacked Lucas Poullain54c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.384358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Lucas Poullain52c35.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6480848.5%392 W · 416 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.