TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,690

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd529…f0d4backed No58c3,000$1,730 inWon+$1,2701,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes42c2,852$1,196 inLost-$1,196.3276054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2787…ed8dbacked Yes40c741.05$300 inLost-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No64c403.33$258 inWon+$145.165762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f89…ccf7backed Yes67c350$236 inLost-$235.542846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-24.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8013…5b52backed No38c247$94 inWon+$153.1417554.9%96 W · 79 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No65c142.86$93 inWon+$501,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes54c120.43$65 inLost-$65.314,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No60c101.51$61 inWon+$40.7483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No56c88$49 inWon+$38.7227059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5430…c1d3backed No58c64.99$38 inWon+$27.322774.4%169 W · 58 L+22.5wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+15.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No57c49.99$28 inWon+$21.595260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x89fa…6ab0backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost-$201421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-31.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes53c36.96$20 inLost-$19.625,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd598…c67cbacked Yes35c32.41$11 inLost-$11.349037.8%34 W · 56 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No67c20$13 inWon+$6.660267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.