NBA · resolved market

Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7e2592c7eb0db4819a43438aaf821b663bca4ca5c0d8320866830166dbf890

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $68,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $70,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,971 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc408…c1efbacked Under	56c	16,262$9,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,100	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over	47c	9,702$4,560 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,142.06	483	52%251 W · 232 L	+10.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	49c	8,289$4,033 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,255.89	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	51c	5,515$2,813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,812.52	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Over	47c	4,763$2,238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,524.59	513	54.2%278 W · 235 L	+9.2wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over	50c	4,147$2,074 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,073.5	226	48.2%109 W · 117 L	-5.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb568…14d4backed Over	46c	3,792$1,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,047.67	277	47.7%132 W · 145 L	-20.4wins	-0.07per pick	55cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under	50c	3,523$1,762 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,761.69	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Over	44c	3,000$1,320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,680	107	43%46 W · 61 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-18%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	2,875$1,455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,454.86	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Under	53c	2,200$1,166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,166	1,759	61.7%1,085 W · 674 L	+127.5wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	47c	2,088$988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,099.73	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	46c	1,807$828 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$979.43	1,715	44.5%764 W · 951 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	51c	1,761$891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$890.59	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under	54c	1,611$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869.39	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	45c	1,560$706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$854.12	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over	48c	1,400$672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$728	357	49.6%177 W · 180 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Under	55c	1,327$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$727	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Under	53c	1,032$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.83	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	389	46%179 W · 210 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	44c	1,018$448 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$570.08	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	45c	834.07$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.61	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	52c	813.07$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.51	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	42c	736.94$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.2	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under	52c	620$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.4	1,384	39.4%545 W · 839 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under	52c	604$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.08	172	43%74 W · 98 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over	45c	592.4$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.82	139	51.1%71 W · 68 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under	48c	559.34$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.74	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under	52c	532.49$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.15	1,170	50.3%588 W · 582 L	+46.8wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccbd…f1b7backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	46	69.6%32 W · 14 L	+3.7wins	+0.08per pick	62cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Under	7c	467.32$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	286	16.4%47 W · 239 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over	45c	444.44$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$244.44	1,157	47.9%554 W · 603 L	-19.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under	51c	424$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.94	473	54.8%259 W · 214 L	+14.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a43…1405backed Over	72c	400$288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112	25	72%18 W · 7 L	+3.8wins	+0.15per pick	57cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under	54c	307.11$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.84	655	42.9%281 W · 374 L	+17.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa774…005fbacked Over	67c	300$201 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99	84	58.3%49 W · 35 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	44c	300$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	58c	278.73$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.87	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked Under	52c	276$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.64	270	59.6%161 W · 109 L	+13.9wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Over	49c	270.1$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.75	405	46.9%190 W · 215 L	-9.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb870…5a8abacked Over	45c	238.79$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130.3	918	46.2%424 W · 494 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over	45c	233.43$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.39	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under	52c	224$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.48	1,113	41.6%463 W · 650 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	47c	217$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.01	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	224	53.1%119 W · 105 L	+29.4wins	+0.13per pick	40cpaid	+29.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd5da…7f7fbacked Under	63c	200$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.04	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Over	47c	194.02$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.83	217	48.4%105 W · 112 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5337…222bbacked Under	7c	171.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	123	31.7%39 W · 84 L	-17.0wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	37-0.11 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under	27c	166$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	230	47.4%109 W · 121 L	+19.2wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a32…2fcdbacked Under	55c	136.36$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	37cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca70…85debacked Over	54c	130$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18ff…e90ebacked Under	51c	125.17$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.84	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Under	52c	111.2$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.82	627	44.5%279 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc339…ba5bbacked Over	50c	108$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54	32	56.3%18 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under	61c	105.03$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.58	312	49.4%154 W · 158 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	394	35.3%139 W · 255 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e32…d479backed Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	131	15.3%20 W · 111 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over	47c	91$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.15	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Under	48c	88.85$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	216	37.5%81 W · 135 L	-7.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	54c	87.1$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.03	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9345…3869backed Over	50c	80.06$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.06	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Over	56c	79$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.61	880	57.5%506 W · 374 L	+34.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over	45c	75$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.25	786	48.7%383 W · 403 L	+6.1wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	47c	73.94$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.51	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bfd…ff86backed Over	49c	62.9$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.08	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x9317…6e69backed Over	49c	62.27$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.76	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-5.4wins	-0.21per pick	48cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Over	50c	59.61$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.61	130	37.7%49 W · 81 L	-14.4wins	-0.11per pick	49cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under	54c	52$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	60c	50$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.8	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	52c	50$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf355…5ab7backed Under	54c	46.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over	45c	45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	464	47.8%222 W · 242 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd155…0af4backed Over	49c	40.41$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.61	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	73c	40.02$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x11a7…2c03backed Over	79c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.3	144	56.3%81 W · 63 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Under	51c	39.36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	168	67.3%113 W · 55 L	+13.8wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under	54c	37.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.19	920	58%534 W · 386 L	+10.4wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Over	44c	36.42$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.39	686	45.5%312 W · 374 L	-22.9wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed8…0e99backed Over	67c	34.65$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.29	456	53.5%244 W · 212 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74fe…8243backed Over	49c	24.49$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.49	48	47.9%23 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under	55c	23.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	256	55.5%142 W · 114 L	+10.7wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c78…aad1backed Under	55c	23.64$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	278	47.1%131 W · 147 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe4eb…05b5backed Over	48c	22.86$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.89	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked Under	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	533	49.3%263 W · 270 L	-28.8wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93ae…ba41backed Under	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	45	44.4%20 W · 25 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+38.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5this page
1H Spread: Raptors (-8.5)Wizards won
Brandon Ingram: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Brandon Ingram: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Bub Carrington: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
Kyshawn George: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Kyshawn George: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Kyshawn George: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
RJ Barrett: Assists O/U 3.5No won
Raptors vs. WizardsRaptors won
Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineWizards won
Raptors vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 226.5Over won
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 227.5Over won
Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 229.5Over won
Scottie Barnes: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Spread: Raptors (-13.5)Wizards won
Spread: Raptors (-14.5)Wizards won
Tre Johnson: Points O/U 12.5No won
Tristan Vukcevic: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
Tristan Vukcevic: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Raptors vs. Wizards: O/U 230.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event