TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 16

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof JiJieHao, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$153,192
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,192 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40e…9770backed Virtus.pro62c67,833$41,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,954.8417951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed JiJieHao38c38,581$14,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,660.7941649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked JiJieHao38c37,205$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,199.565,09555.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L+119.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed JiJieHao38c22,222$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.366152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Virtus.pro62c17,436$10,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,554.6423043.9%101 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf958…db13backed Virtus.pro62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,800850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed JiJieHao38c7,740$2,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.1767951.4%349 W · 330 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9d6…730abacked Virtus.pro68c7,510$5,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,395.629565.3%62 W · 33 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked Virtus.pro62c4,546$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,714.661,52351.5%785 W · 738 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed JiJieHao39c3,975$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.582,64551.9%1,372 W · 1,273 L+21.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8e…21b7backed Virtus.pro61c3,967$2,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.1316250%81 W · 81 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Virtus.pro65c3,129$2,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.781,65252.9%874 W · 778 L+60.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbadb…31a7backed Virtus.pro62c3,000$1,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,13013647.1%64 W · 72 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked JiJieHao37c2,527$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.977052.7%406 W · 364 L+28.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed JiJieHao38c2,117$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.5947655%262 W · 214 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed JiJieHao37c2,027$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75061055.9%341 W · 269 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Virtus.pro62c1,821$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.7282142.5%349 W · 472 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed JiJieHao37c1,607$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002,03053.7%1,091 W · 939 L+6.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed JiJieHao38c1,573$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.5940341.7%168 W · 235 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfeb9…95c9backed JiJieHao19c1,393$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.1155232.4%179 W · 373 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Virtus.pro63c1,370$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.91788.2%15 W · 2 L+4.8wins+0.28per pick60cpaid+49.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Virtus.pro62c1,100$682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41875545.6%344 W · 411 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Virtus.pro62c1,076$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.883256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked Virtus.pro62c1,068$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.747550.7%38 W · 37 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb0…57e0backed JiJieHao39c999.97$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.996144.3%27 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed JiJieHao18c695$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.22,66430.8%820 W · 1,844 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c67…e40ebacked Virtus.pro62c648.39$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.3919642.9%84 W · 112 L-0.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked JiJieHao15c636.99$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.535,03437.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L-260.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12b1…b851backed JiJieHao19c618.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.413716.2%6 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Virtus.pro62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22857740.4%233 W · 344 L+1.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4419…fcf4backed Virtus.pro79c552.36$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.369163.7%58 W · 33 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed JiJieHao38c547.17$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0613545.2%61 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Virtus.pro62c546.64$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.737848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Virtus.pro62c537$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0613846.4%64 W · 74 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…fc9bbacked Virtus.pro62c535.31$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.429443.6%41 W · 53 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c5e…269bbacked JiJieHao38c530$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.442050%210 W · 210 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Virtus.pro62c513$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.941,12142.5%476 W · 645 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7774…5bfbbacked JiJieHao38c499.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked JiJieHao23c434.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.684,75443.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L-85.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed JiJieHao35c400$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14048654.5%265 W · 221 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55e0…e643backed JiJieHao26c359.38$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.44922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked JiJieHao35c349$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8553135%186 W · 345 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed JiJieHao20c340.36$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.2549952.3%261 W · 238 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed JiJieHao38c319.33$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6110356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed Virtus.pro66c308.57$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0811348.7%55 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed JiJieHao38c300.33$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.631,00748.5%488 W · 519 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked JiJieHao34c282.57$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.072638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa3…7585backed JiJieHao38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10077351.2%396 W · 377 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47c2…d39ebacked JiJieHao38c263.15$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed JiJieHao39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10032461.4%199 W · 125 L+23.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb595…5922backed JiJieHao29c238.78$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0320653.9%111 W · 95 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked JiJieHao39c230.77$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9014168.8%97 W · 44 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x089c…33dabacked Virtus.pro61c217.98$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.8122455.8%125 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef4f…4598backed Virtus.pro62c203.23$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.234040%16 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed JiJieHao38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde30…3159backed Virtus.pro62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7624260.3%146 W · 96 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked JiJieHao23c195.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.182,19543.1%946 W · 1,249 L-68.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked JiJieHao16c187.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306350.8%32 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked Virtus.pro71c182.98$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.912,14347.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L-61.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd92e…3d53backed JiJieHao39c169.23$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x376f…5a0ebacked Virtus.pro62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed JiJieHao39c153.85$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012060.8%73 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked JiJieHao38c145.66$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3521857.3%125 W · 93 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x79b5…df9bbacked JiJieHao38c129.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.055536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed JiJieHao39c127.71$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.814372.1%31 W · 12 L+8.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+39.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xcb49…f70cbacked JiJieHao39c127.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Virtus.pro80c125$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.63,23651.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L+88.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Virtus.pro71c125$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82,22347.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L-5.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed JiJieHao22c115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.562,55441.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L-116.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Virtus.pro75c112.82$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0772645.6%331 W · 395 L-21.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e0…f4a0backed JiJieHao37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4084856%475 W · 373 L+31.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4038…35e4backed Virtus.pro62c106.01$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2811352.2%59 W · 54 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab05…52e9backed Virtus.pro61c102.54$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.999654.2%52 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed JiJieHao38c100.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1368749.6%341 W · 346 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed JiJieHao39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3936457.1%208 W · 156 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a0…111abacked JiJieHao12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127930.4%24 W · 55 L-9.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-32.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x834f…f38ebacked Virtus.pro63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376858.8%40 W · 28 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc84f…bb5bbacked JiJieHao38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387145.1%32 W · 39 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Virtus.pro62c99.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3892145.8%422 W · 499 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked JiJieHao38c98.18$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4643155.9%241 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8818…f8acbacked Virtus.pro62c96.77$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7717261%105 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f90…4af9backed Virtus.pro62c88.71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.712944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Virtus.pro70c88.34$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.632,53034.6%876 W · 1,654 L-193.6wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Virtus.pro67c85.61$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.062,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro61c85.36$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.365,58047.2%2,632 W · 2,948 L+47.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0b…4857backed Virtus.pro61c84.51$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.962544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ae8…3788backed Virtus.pro62c83.87$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.87633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-41.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98f6…79d2backed Virtus.pro62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6537851.9%196 W · 182 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503d…04a5backed Virtus.pro62c80.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.6526351%134 W · 129 L+0.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed JiJieHao39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304926.5%13 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed JiJieHao38c76.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2925635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked JiJieHao23c75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.251,89041.9%791 W · 1,099 L-71.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Virtus.pro79c75$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.944,23849.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L+60.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x203a…935fbacked Virtus.pro67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6329854.7%163 W · 135 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72e7…2b72backed Virtus.pro61c72.26$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.862748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked JiJieHao38c70$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.61,26246.9%592 W · 670 L-34.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed JiJieHao23c69.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95151%26 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…5addbacked Virtus.pro63c66.02$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.439260.9%56 W · 36 L+11.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Virtus.pro78c63.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9762448.2%301 W · 323 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed JiJieHao38c61.16$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9919453.6%104 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.