Middle East · resolved market
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf45ded2f6394f8c007c701c7ee260485474dbea686ec8e312b5d21a2b478a4cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 17,150$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 0c | 11,733$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34b1…bc54backed No | 2c | 7,999$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8334…4e9fbacked No | 13c | 7,173$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.5 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 17c | 6,238$1,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.35 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked No | 33c | 4,990$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 13c | 3,718$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.3 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed Yes | 49c | 3,519$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.97 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…a71dbacked Yes | 50c | 3,240$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,607.38 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d32…ca56backed No | 12c | 2,929$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…a5c8backed Yes | 75c | 2,796$2,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 23cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 65c | 2,482$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.71 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 45c | 2,252$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.89 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 15c | 1,932$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.04 | 212 | 59.9%127 W · 85 L | +21.8wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 63c | 1,602$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.52 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 67c | 1,468$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.26 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 24c | 1,435$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.13 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 61c | 1,174$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.73 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,114$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25d6…e5e9backed Yes | 19c | 1,064$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 74c | 846.62$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 30c | 841.64$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 22c | 764.79$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.06 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…5d20backed No | 32c | 610$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 608.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 37c | 549.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.45 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d7…8d85backed Yes | 79c | 505$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 3c | 500.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 450.41$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.86 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 3c | 417.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf206…8cf6backed Yes | 74c | 405$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 51c | 306.04$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.54 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 68cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41b2…b463backed No | 56c | 295.86$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked No | 11c | 273.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 33c | 252.87$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.27 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc654…f0debacked Yes | 52c | 247.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 61c | 245$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 41c | 236$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47d2…4c10backed No | 43c | 232.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed No | 70c | 220.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed No | 75c | 200.77$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e7…a536backed No | 12c | 198$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 48c | 197.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 35c | 192$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 181$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc35c…7b66backed No | 17c | 176.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 65c | 150$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa51b…26b1backed No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 22c | 149.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…12e7backed Yes | 74c | 148.91$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 141.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 32c | 139.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.42 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…9d7cbacked Yes | 74c | 138.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…7458backed No | 76c | 137.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 129.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.14 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 121$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.02 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +10.8wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8392…e3a2backed Yes | 20c | 98.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 144 | 20.8%30 W · 114 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…2916backed No | 31c | 92.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 78c | 72.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 33c | 71.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe424…0d1abacked No | 79c | 63.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 72cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x150c…6474backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 53c | 54.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…3d86backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 30c | 49.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 40c | 44.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd118…a96dbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 79c | 39.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2a…43d5backed No | 50c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…3697backed Yes | 43c | 31.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 55c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…7553backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked No | 53c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…e4a5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.