Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4ed7451214b4293380a49acb7bdc8c4087c1bd0d970f6f4c3a89f82fbce8b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 53c | 892.72$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.08 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 24c | 868.53$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 35c | 733$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 66c | 646.59$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.72 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 42c | 635.26$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.06 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 539.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9b…2be5backed No | 46c | 521.05$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 418.33$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.58 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 59c | 405.35$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 54c | 371.64$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.73 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33c…488cbacked Yes | 55c | 363.56$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 354.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 65c | 311.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.65 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 272.03$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 54c | 260.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 48c | 253.26$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.88 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 246.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 66c | 241.79$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.63 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 44c | 236.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 230$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 21c | 223.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 223.42$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.41 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 47c | 198$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 43c | 185.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 32c | 172.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 43c | 171.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 43c | 166.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.61 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 151.49$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 11c | 142.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 64c | 137.09$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 35c | 136.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 131.31$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 31c | 129.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 44c | 118.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.66 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 29c | 118.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 36c | 114.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 114$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 47c | 109.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 108.89$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 107$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 19c | 106.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b17…f3febacked Yes | 79c | 105.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 75c | 104.96$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 47c | 99.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 47c | 98.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 45c | 95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 56c | 86.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 64c | 83.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 50c | 79.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 50c | 77.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 75.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 41c | 75.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 23c | 75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 73.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 26c | 72.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked Yes | 70c | 67.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 73c | 67.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…6ce5backed Yes | 55c | 60.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 42c | 60.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 58.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 45c | 54.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608f…02a8backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8710…f9c7backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 44c | 48.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 45c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 25c | 47.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 67c | 40.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 43c | 40.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 31c | 40.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 46c | 40.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 32c | 36.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 56c | 35.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 52c | 34.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 50c | 31.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 45c | 30.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 53c | 30.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a6…b9d6backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…63f8backed No | 51c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 65cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.