Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4925fd29ee2474a6a3765770f4f34ba35eebb03866cab815eff800834fa645a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 668.39$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 32c | 662.67$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.03 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 482$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 429.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 385$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 353.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 309.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 262.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 38c | 240.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 230$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 207$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 17c | 199.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 199.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 10c | 196.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 191.64$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 181.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 17c | 180.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 177.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 154.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 152.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.9 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked Yes | 11c | 147.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 139.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 137.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 36c | 133.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 64c | 132.18$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.47 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 124.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 74c | 124.5$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.67 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 73c | 118.43$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 115.51$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 37c | 111.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 51c | 107.64$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 80c | 100.02$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 31c | 98.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 31c | 95.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 36c | 84.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 82.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 80.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 76.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 79c | 75.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 31c | 73.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 73.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 71.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 68.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 21c | 65.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 53c | 64.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 30c | 60.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 63c | 57.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 57.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 35c | 54.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 52.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…8c02backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 43.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 37c | 43.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 74c | 42.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 41.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…405abacked No | 66c | 40.09$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 168 | 33.9%57 W · 111 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 27c | 38.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 38.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 36c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 35c | 32.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…6cefbacked No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 76c | 30.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 51c | 28.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 27.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 52c | 26.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 75c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 77c | 24.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 80c | 23.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked No | 69c | 21.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f4…89d3backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 20.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 66c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 19.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…c08dbacked No | 58c | 18.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.