Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf56f5730a91e957f470d03a2c5ababef6699832b0f2f7b64764ec4b5e581a4c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 24c | 563.68$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.98 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 311.94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.73 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 275.67$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 42c | 266.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.48 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 214.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 26c | 198$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 73c | 182$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.58 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 175.93$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.77 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 161.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 158$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 145.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 122.39$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 76c | 116.69$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 114$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 113.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 103.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.6 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 39c | 98.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 69c | 83.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 74.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 26c | 69.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e8…c691backed Yes | 25c | 69.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +167.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 69.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 57c | 64.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 25c | 64.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 31c | 61.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 31c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.14 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…e62bbacked Yes | 77c | 51.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 27c | 48.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 76c | 44.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 58c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 43.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…67bebacked Yes | 58c | 43.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 35.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 34.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 79c | 29.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 75c | 28.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…9a51backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 30.6%33 W · 75 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 74c | 18.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70e…3204backed No | 77c | 17.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 17.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 76c | 13.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 13.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.