Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x520635b8828c87f976dce1c58072a3118435e7fa21bf4d9edd6e63f345f9b029
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,270
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,270 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 697.56$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 59c | 580.94$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.52 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 253.72$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 44c | 252.94$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 50c | 208.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 196.7$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 51c | 165.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 43c | 159.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 148.56$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 15c | 139$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 135.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 44c | 129.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 124.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 113$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 50c | 108.81$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 38c | 106.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 103.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 47c | 101.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 96.84$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 74c | 93.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 52c | 92.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 55c | 92.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 45c | 90.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 12c | 90.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 46c | 88.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 52c | 83.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 41c | 79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed Yes | 46c | 78.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 46c | 78.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 50c | 68.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 31c | 54.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 62c | 47.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 62c | 46.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 41.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 48c | 37.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 46c | 36.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 58c | 36.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c6…ecc0backed Yes | 49c | 35.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 45c | 33.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 49c | 33.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 39c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 34c | 32.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 31.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 53c | 29.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 46c | 27.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 25.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 59c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 60c | 19.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 53c | 19.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on July 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.