TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof 3DMAX, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,326 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 217 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf31b…241bbacked 3DMAX32c9,283$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.6422927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked 3DMAX48c4,566$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.6733552.5%176 W · 159 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked TheMongolz52c4,275$2,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.8683652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf67d…c986backed 3DMAX54c3,599$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.8311133.3%37 W · 74 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf94f…9adabacked TheMongolz78c3,527$2,747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.335464.8%35 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz58c3,433$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.12,12041.9%889 W · 1,231 L-47.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd0…c5aebacked 3DMAX1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25924.3%4 W · 88 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked TheMongolz73c2,457$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.4519248.4%93 W · 99 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed 3DMAX40c2,410$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96421347.9%102 W · 111 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked 3DMAX37c2,300$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.383,26250.3%1,640 W · 1,622 L+97.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked TheMongolz61c2,136$1,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.323,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed TheMongolz55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90023543.8%103 W · 132 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed 3DMAX45c1,966$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.979740%319 W · 478 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed TheMongolz71c1,902$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.6655843.2%241 W · 317 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed TheMongolz53c1,870$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.155172.5%37 W · 14 L+6.7wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed TheMongolz59c1,712$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.3957358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed 3DMAX46c1,678$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.294351.2%22 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed TheMongolz59c1,667$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.6849646.6%231 W · 265 L+1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed 3DMAX41c1,653$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.1924944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked TheMongolz61c1,611$982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.621,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked 3DMAX39c1,583$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.4831126.4%82 W · 229 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked TheMongolz56c1,538$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.0182251.6%424 W · 398 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc350…3669backed TheMongolz61c1,497$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.8211655.2%64 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked 3DMAX3c1,458$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7361228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed TheMongolz60c1,315$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.8611166.7%74 W · 37 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 3DMAX39c1,294$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.626,52242.9%2,798 W · 3,724 L-80.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed TheMongolz55c1,266$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.45,40031.5%1,699 W · 3,701 L-393.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked 3DMAX40c1,189$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.642440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked TheMongolz68c1,123$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.9277957.4%447 W · 332 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed 3DMAX38c1,107$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.5448437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed TheMongolz59c1,060$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.48947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked 3DMAX53c1,054$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.811947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed TheMongolz59c1,000$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41561148.1%294 W · 317 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed TheMongolz76c980.33$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2812571.2%89 W · 36 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked TheMongolz50c930$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46519741.6%82 W · 115 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed 3DMAX33c919.24$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.544,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 3DMAX34c900$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30651252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked 3DMAX38c884.79$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2212148.8%59 W · 62 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed TheMongolz59c831.21$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.853746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX48c759.78$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.4272453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed TheMongolz63c749.98$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.497755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked 3DMAX8c739.89$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.671123.9%170 W · 541 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed 3DMAX41c733.36$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6846749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed TheMongolz57c698.4$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.974252.4%22 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked TheMongolz60c696.21$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.491,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed TheMongolz59c687.8$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28454345.1%245 W · 298 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed 3DMAX16c660.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5733043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca2…5d25backed 3DMAX39c566.89$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0917759.9%106 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed 3DMAX10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5547045.3%213 W · 257 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed TheMongolz67c543.93$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.0133553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 3DMAX11c525.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.525,65147.2%2,668 W · 2,983 L+46.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed 3DMAX37c515.13$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.5688848.3%429 W · 459 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 3DMAX39c508.19$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.971,27347.1%600 W · 673 L+20.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked 3DMAX44c482.93$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.219443.6%41 W · 53 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed 3DMAX14c479.6$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1332136.8%118 W · 203 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed 3DMAX41c470.54$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.926426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.3wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x68a3…1e3ebacked 3DMAX5c469.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1448…b30bbacked 3DMAX14c457.07$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.239546.3%44 W · 51 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed 3DMAX38c445.53$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.388242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x341f…b48bbacked 3DMAX53c438.2$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.13243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed 3DMAX26c410.32$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.729746.4%45 W · 52 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x847e…3c43backed TheMongolz62c403.92$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.7329052.4%152 W · 138 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed TheMongolz56c403.37$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.4832042.5%136 W · 184 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed 3DMAX51c390.14$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.975253.8%28 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed TheMongolz67c382.38$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5858961.3%361 W · 228 L-1.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8b…2858backed 3DMAX45c380.35$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4de…0da4backed TheMongolz61c376.59$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8733960.8%206 W · 133 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed 3DMAX40c361.5$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.636554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 3DMAX41c347.2$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.322,81637.6%1,060 W · 1,756 L-138.1wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed TheMongolz70c336.69$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0134156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked 3DMAX45c319.11$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.627245.2%123 W · 149 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…98ecbacked 3DMAX33c318.16$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…7ce0backed TheMongolz55c309.59$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.322227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2f03…77dcbacked 3DMAX34c309.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.661127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a06…cf08backed TheMongolz67c290.15$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.276651.5%34 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed 3DMAX43c265.89$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.422250%11 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x420b…965bbacked TheMongolz69c265.45$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.7258954.2%319 W · 270 L+9.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0fb…b170backed 3DMAX34c251.72$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0111442.1%48 W · 66 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a8…48c0backed TheMongolz60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10025251.2%129 W · 123 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d6…0c2abacked 3DMAX4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.511032.7%36 W · 74 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…3c9cbacked 3DMAX38c240.7$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.4728657.7%165 W · 121 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked TheMongolz55c237.67$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked TheMongolz56c236.8$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0712352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…6de3backed 3DMAX41c235.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4643051.6%222 W · 208 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed TheMongolz56c234.59$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.8211546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed TheMongolz56c234.02$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.242347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…be9dbacked 3DMAX41c225.46$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6931253.5%167 W · 145 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked TheMongolz66c222.08$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8726037.3%97 W · 163 L-17.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed TheMongolz60c221.85$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.8224544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked 3DMAX51c219.24$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.816460.9%39 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz57c217.98$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.558,05850.3%4,055 W · 4,003 L+171.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed 3DMAX46c207.02$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.532,42246.6%1,129 W · 1,293 L-56.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed 3DMAX47c206.97$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.814766%31 W · 16 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdbe…b6d8backed 3DMAX27c205.19$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4914929.5%44 W · 105 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a07…923fbacked 3DMAX44c200.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.38161.7%50 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbc…3d8abacked 3DMAX33c200.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.171729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 3DMAX42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$842,60652.6%1,371 W · 1,235 L+96.9wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa76e…dcb6backed TheMongolz59c200$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821,31053.7%703 W · 607 L+32.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed 3DMAX40c185.97$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2253850.6%272 W · 266 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed TheMongolz46c176.4$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.2578348.4%379 W · 404 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.