TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
TheMongolzof 3DMAX, TheMongolz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$505,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$577,881

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $505,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked 3DMAX31c98,358$30,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,947.5642440.3%171 W · 253 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked TheMongolz68c93,834$63,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,027.0239249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed 3DMAX32c29,975$9,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,59221048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked 3DMAX34c27,064$9,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,119.7530726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked TheMongolz67c23,997$16,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,920.5238358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed 3DMAX32c17,486$5,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,595.5917643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked TheMongolz69c15,000$10,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,65022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed 3DMAX13c15,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9503852.6%20 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked 3DMAX10c14,117$1,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,447.5418550.8%94 W · 91 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e29…cd86backed 3DMAX14c13,499$1,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.511931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12b…5a89backed TheMongolz68c12,900$8,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,127.96168.9%42 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed 3DMAX13c11,805$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.733043.3%143 W · 187 L+1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked 3DMAX14c10,652$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.314850%24 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked TheMongolz70c10,241$7,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.2625751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed TheMongolz67c10,014$6,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,304.875450.5%381 W · 373 L+17.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5768…d072backed TheMongolz77c8,402$6,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950.131266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed TheMongolz67c8,402$5,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,772.5288242.3%373 W · 509 L-13.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked 3DMAX32c7,033$2,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,250.5827452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed 3DMAX13c6,726$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.9218624.2%45 W · 141 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed 3DMAX32c6,043$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,933.7584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed 3DMAX30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9971645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed 3DMAX29c4,594$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.1635236.4%128 W · 224 L-1.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed TheMongolz66c4,500$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5456656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked 3DMAX6c4,481$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7529127.5%80 W · 211 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…146abacked TheMongolz73c4,043$2,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.61366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed 3DMAX19c4,000$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.9918442.9%79 W · 105 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed 3DMAX28c3,957$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,093.0236742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe02f…3d4cbacked TheMongolz69c3,926$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,216.9417053.5%91 W · 79 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked 3DMAX33c3,912$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.9428538.2%109 W · 176 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…f573backed 3DMAX32c3,766$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.0934146.6%159 W · 182 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked TheMongolz74c3,755$2,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.61,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed 3DMAX35c3,567$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.8342142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked TheMongolz66c3,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0205354.7%29 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+31.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked TheMongolz69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.554957.1%28 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-5.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f49…463abacked 3DMAX32c2,591$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.0717945.3%81 W · 98 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed TheMongolz69c2,500$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78514950.3%75 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked TheMongolz74c2,484$1,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.27,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed 3DMAX4c2,480$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2355043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd71…a641backed 3DMAX34c2,248$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$764.4240%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed TheMongolz68c2,000$1,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64560848%292 W · 316 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed 3DMAX33c1,824$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.0811253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked TheMongolz68c1,804$1,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.425261.5%155 W · 97 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked TheMongolz69c1,622$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502.764852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c70…1d71backed TheMongolz74c1,500$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.994965.3%32 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed TheMongolz69c1,472$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.3522943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f93…bffabacked TheMongolz69c1,472$1,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.3578963.8%503 W · 286 L-2.5wins0.00per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaccd…7402backed TheMongolz67c1,463$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.793447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed TheMongolz69c1,422$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9220946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed TheMongolz69c1,422$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.9221060%126 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked TheMongolz78c1,411$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30963038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed TheMongolz69c1,274$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.377755.8%43 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…b68fbacked 3DMAX2c1,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ff…a491backed 3DMAX32c1,151$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.339554.7%52 W · 43 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd64d…bcfebacked TheMongolz71c1,120$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.553560%21 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed 3DMAX32c1,055$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.648846.6%41 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed TheMongolz69c1,050$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.514955%82 W · 67 L+9.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked 3DMAX30c1,000$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.0140950.6%207 W · 202 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed TheMongolz68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32010252%53 W · 49 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd07…8d16backed 3DMAX10c999.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011645.7%53 W · 63 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed 3DMAX30c999.93$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.981,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX32c989.67$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.795,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7193…ae51backed TheMongolz73c989.36$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.1329858.4%174 W · 124 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ed…ce26backed 3DMAX15c969.7$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.451838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd179…74adbacked TheMongolz69c969.26$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.4719351.8%100 W · 93 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed 3DMAX35c961.87$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2972453.7%389 W · 335 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked TheMongolz71c960.77$678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.8146165.5%302 W · 159 L+0.4wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86af…f384backed TheMongolz67c940.7$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.439764.9%63 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed 3DMAX31c927.68$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5814044.3%62 W · 78 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…8264backed TheMongolz69c924.51$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.64346.5%20 W · 23 L-6.5wins-0.15per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3878…1ab8backed TheMongolz69c917.85$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.5317840.4%72 W · 106 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked TheMongolz66c909.87$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked TheMongolz66c909.87$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3612352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked TheMongolz67c807.87$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.611952.1%62 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked 3DMAX32c804.02$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.299146.2%42 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed TheMongolz63c802.53$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.942,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed TheMongolz66c765.54$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.2811546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed TheMongolz66c765.54$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.282347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa304…b075backed TheMongolz66c765$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.13348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed TheMongolz65c763.62$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.2724262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked 3DMAX32c749.38$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.813234.8%46 W · 86 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed 3DMAX33c727.12$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.956426.6%17 W · 47 L-12.3wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-47%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed TheMongolz69c717.84$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5320249%99 W · 103 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbc…a37bbacked TheMongolz69c711.16$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.465468.5%37 W · 17 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae06…be4dbacked TheMongolz70c701.43$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.4314560.7%88 W · 57 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed 3DMAX27c687$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4924339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84e5…2303backed 3DMAX7c685.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.368520%17 W · 68 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed TheMongolz70c674.83$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.453756.8%21 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2294…4cd3backed 3DMAX32c661.85$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.7916450.6%83 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e91…69d7backed 3DMAX17c656.05$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c19…6303backed TheMongolz69c640.04$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.413265.6%21 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9345…0afbbacked TheMongolz69c638.44$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.9215363.4%97 W · 56 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8791…4c9abacked 3DMAX15c632.67$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.92142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x135f…528cbacked 3DMAX15c626.34$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.958232.9%27 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed 3DMAX14c610.63$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4916047.5%76 W · 84 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed TheMongolz68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1923354.5%18 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+23.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed 3DMAX32c599.5$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.8464854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed TheMongolz67c585.19$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.1134156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb83f…b17ebacked TheMongolz69c573.7$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.8524249.2%119 W · 123 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7e…366ebacked TheMongolz69c571.79$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.311850%9 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed TheMongolz69c568.93$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.3752456.3%295 W · 229 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.