Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f4bdeb84540b3e3feb26167505f8e63c62e962c44fb674c552801e4c5dd143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 5c | 3,400$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.84 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 2,640$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 36c | 2,141$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.19 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 1,557$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 36c | 1,261$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.13 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…38d7backed Yes | 57c | 982.61$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.24 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 933.49$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.05 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 906.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 795.15$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.41 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 38c | 785.87$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.84 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 53c | 784.73$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.57 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 59c | 678.11$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 45c | 640.17$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 597.32$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 525.11$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 512.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 492.61$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.65 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 49c | 491.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.74 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 479$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 370.46$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.78 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 6c | 360$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed Yes | 39c | 337.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.97 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 327$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 46c | 321$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.32 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 303$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.07 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 34c | 300.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 35c | 293.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 37c | 290.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 286.81$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 282$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 45c | 226.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 224.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd936…17d6backed Yes | 48c | 224.19$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 15c | 211.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 43c | 205.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.66 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 44c | 205$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.8 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a13…72cebacked Yes | 58c | 199.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 192.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 187$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed No | 58c | 180$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bf…bff5backed Yes | 59c | 172.49$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…3952backed Yes | 56c | 172.13$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 51c | 171.75$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 43c | 168.32$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 58c | 166$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 46c | 161.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 158.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.6 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked No | 51c | 156.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 46c | 154.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.72 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 43c | 152.82$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 48c | 152.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 144.37$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 36c | 138.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 44c | 138.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 54c | 137.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e1…e24abacked Yes | 27c | 109.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 42c | 107.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…53f3backed Yes | 47c | 106.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 44c | 105.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…04fbbacked Yes | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 43c | 105.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.98 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 32c | 102.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaa…d0e0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…d2d1backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…866abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 98.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 98.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 46c | 96.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 96.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec3…a081backed Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed No | 43c | 92.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 61c | 91.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 25c | 90.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed No | 43c | 88.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1298…e850backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 84.55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…6a7bbacked Yes | 46c | 81.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 52c | 81.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…bf3fbacked Yes | 51c | 79.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 65c | 76.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 57c | 72.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 41c | 68.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked No | 47c | 66.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed Yes | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 53c | 61.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 51c | 57.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 47c | 56.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed No | 46c | 52.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf722…4e1ebacked Yes | 55c | 50.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.