Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b07553b422575087099cd71cea67c76ab43a4f3d7b332f28ebea6bb77ac8073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 6c | 3,860$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…6adfbacked Yes | 27c | 1,266$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 1,193$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.13 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5b…d952backed No | 72c | 1,107$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -5.0wins | -0.31per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 36c | 1,084$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.88 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 64c | 970.24$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.24 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 831.14$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.68 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 31c | 780.27$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.21 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…6e25backed No | 76c | 771.73$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 690.78$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.19 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 50c | 678.12$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.22 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…ab49backed Yes | 26c | 635.92$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.3 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 34c | 600$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.56 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4989…983ebacked Yes | 32c | 568.36$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.77 | 336 | 26.8%90 W · 246 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 22c | 563.35$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.18 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 539.95$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 3c | 530.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 3c | 522.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 514$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 507.61$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 76c | 500$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.01 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 500$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 31c | 471.65$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.21 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…ff09backed Yes | 48c | 466.83$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.87 | 187 | 31%58 W · 129 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 21c | 444.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 26c | 408.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.77 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 363.25$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.13 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…9800backed No | 65c | 359.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.03 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6254…1e8cbacked No | 4c | 354.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bf63backed Yes | 27c | 348.9$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.77 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 327$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb679…dbb1backed Yes | 25c | 321.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 73c | 306$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.38 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…9906backed No | 41c | 299.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…4357backed Yes | 27c | 293.2$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.7 | 208 | 32.7%68 W · 140 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 257.03$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.62 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 255.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 254$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 73c | 249.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.49 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 58c | 249.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 75c | 249.52$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.37 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 35c | 247.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.34 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 27c | 246.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.29 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 25c | 230.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…4deabacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 289 | 25.3%73 W · 216 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4832…bb63backed No | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d9…1b48backed No | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 24c | 192.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.15 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 18c | 179.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 14c | 176.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 8c | 168.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 70c | 160$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…ac64backed Yes | 80c | 156.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 155.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 154.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357a…88dfbacked Yes | 78c | 154.19$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 65c | 152.1$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 151.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 66c | 149.05$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1acd…53f3backed Yes | 34c | 148.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 8c | 142.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 28c | 139.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…c144backed Yes | 70c | 134.61$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 148 | 35.8%53 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 30c | 133$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f4…c6eebacked Yes | 76c | 131.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 32c | 126.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.21 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 32c | 121.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf05…3d5bbacked Yes | 68c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87ba…da46backed Yes | 34c | 119.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 146 | 35.6%52 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 11c | 118.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 40c | 115.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bf…bff5backed Yes | 50c | 113.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 41c | 112.69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 22c | 109.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 10c | 107.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 28c | 106$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked No | 51c | 103.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 78c | 102.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0358…95a4backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 98.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 22c | 96.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.61 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 96.29$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 68c | 95.9$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes | 66c | 91.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 13c | 91.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 67c | 91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.41 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe522…8c25backed No | 60c | 83.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 83.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 83.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9db…2ac6backed No | 67c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.