WNBA · resolved market
Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6990c95a68b4e8e5e1f0de8b7c349f75af0b146c710e56557049949ac349086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 52c | 999.55$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.35 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 928.26$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.98 | 885 | 48.2%427 W · 458 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 50c | 490$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 364 | 40.4%147 W · 217 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 490$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1,040 | 47.7%496 W · 544 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.3 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 47c | 341.62$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.06 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 315.27$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.94 | 151 | 42.4%64 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 65c | 307.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 32c | 288.46$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 63c | 219.49$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.04 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 174.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Over | 54c | 133.06$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…a295backed Over | 54c | 130.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 66.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 266 | 46.2%123 W · 143 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0b…4db0backed Over | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 31c | 57.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…c50bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 48c | 29.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.