WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7850600dc4728a07aa5597aec17596df8885e419ac1999064892693a3d21dec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf0de…8048backed Washington Mystics | 60c | 9,099$5,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,678.85 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 8,738$3,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,469.93 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 2,526$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.18 | 408 | 50%204 W · 204 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Washington Mystics | 62c | 1,301$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Mystics | 47c | 1,145$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.36 | 418 | 41.1%172 W · 246 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…5a1cbacked Washington Mystics | 60c | 1,109$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.71 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Washington Mystics | 31c | 1,100$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.84 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Phoenix Mercury | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 578 | 54.8%317 W · 261 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics | 60c | 970$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 886.96$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.46 | 1,040 | 47.7%496 W · 544 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 616$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.88 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 514$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.74 | 923 | 49.2%454 W · 469 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfb…8beabacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 489.88$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 364 | 40.4%147 W · 217 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 489.29$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.07 | 885 | 48.2%427 W · 458 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 458.46$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.72 | 115 | 27.8%32 W · 83 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…dda7backed Washington Mystics | 57c | 396.25$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.29 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 358.74$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.83 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 311.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 199.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Phoenix Mercury | 39c | 187.89$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 622 | 42%261 W · 361 L | -33.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…0307backed Washington Mystics | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 52c | 153$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 317 | 47.3%150 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfe…9483backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 147$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Phoenix Mercury | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Phoenix Mercury | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…589ebacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 67.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 638 | 46.7%298 W · 340 L | -21.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 954 | 48.1%459 W · 495 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa584…c9adbacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eaf…985fbacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 486 | 46.9%228 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Phoenix Mercury | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…6a41backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 44.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 41.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 276 | 46%127 W · 149 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 36.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 77c | 31.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Phoenix Mercury | 42c | 26.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.