WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6eaf6909dd6cf4472462c018bb59f9ec95824a13c17d1937a9ef612ce80c8e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 2,492$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.6 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…9884backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 2,302$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.98 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Washington Mystics | 57c | 1,423$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.16 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 1,160$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.41 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 706.15$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.39 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 599.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 542.4$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.71 | 1,040 | 47.7%496 W · 544 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 459.76$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 885 | 48.2%427 W · 458 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Mystics | 25c | 369$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.75 | 522 | 47.5%248 W · 274 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Washington Mystics | 59c | 305$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.05 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 278.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Phoenix Mercury | 43c | 211.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.28 | 276 | 46%127 W · 149 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccc4…b44abacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 191.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Washington Mystics | 58c | 183.52$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 158.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.91 | 317 | 47.3%150 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Washington Mystics | 53c | 144.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 283 | 50.5%143 W · 140 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3c…35cfbacked Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 41c | 123.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 418 | 41.1%172 W · 246 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 117$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 954 | 48.1%459 W · 495 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 104.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.82 | 266 | 46.2%123 W · 143 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked Washington Mystics | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 76.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 351 | 47.9%168 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Phoenix Mercury | 46c | 61.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 783 | 42.3%331 W · 452 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…5152backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 57.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 56.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 408 | 50%204 W · 204 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Washington Mystics | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Washington Mystics | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…d8cabacked Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 48.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 47.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 40.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 725 | 45.2%328 W · 397 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Washington Mystics | 56c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 40c | 32.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Washington Mystics | 54c | 30.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0e…cdedbacked Phoenix Mercury | 45c | 27.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Phoenix Mercury | 44c | 27.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 23.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Washington Mystics | 55c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…3aecbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 22.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.