WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x364a28038f95da7f2a77749cdc12c953c7c4f462a29c985f430cfc5f6fa2b433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Mysticsof Washington Mystics, Phoenix Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,276
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 21,734$11,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,649.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 19,829$9,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,885.86 | 486 | 46.9%228 W · 258 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 15,491$7,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,652.96 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2dfabacked Phoenix Mercury | 0c | 14,190$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 10,053$5,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,023.41 | 1,040 | 47.7%496 W · 544 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999d…a1e1backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 7,279$3,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,639.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 48c | 5,932$2,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,858.01 | 1,820 | 51.7%941 W · 879 L | +54.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 885 | 48.2%427 W · 458 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2627…fa13backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Washington Mystics | 50c | 2,822$1,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 2,689$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305.84 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…344fbacked Washington Mystics | 54c | 963.89$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.89 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 919.05$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.24 | 679 | 51.1%347 W · 332 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Phoenix Mercury | 67c | 909.99$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 799.98$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.99 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 504.39$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.71 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…b80fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 31c | 322.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Phoenix Mercury | 5c | 248.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 13cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Phoenix Mercury | 50c | 240$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Phoenix Mercury | 47c | 236.17$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 809 | 48.6%393 W · 416 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Washington Mystics | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…cca7backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 163.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -7.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 98.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 266 | 46.2%123 W · 143 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Washington Mystics | 49c | 83.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…4a24backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 80.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Washington Mystics | 48c | 59.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 364 | 40.4%147 W · 217 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 317 | 47.3%150 W · 167 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…eab6backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 57.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 128 | 53.1%68 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Washington Mystics | 50c | 46.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Phoenix Mercury | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Phoenix Mercury | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 67%59 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Phoenix Mercury | 51c | 30.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06f…f289backed Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Washington Mystics | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Phoenix Mercury | 49c | 26.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-3.5)Washington Mystics won
- Spread: Washington Mystics (-4.5)Washington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix MercuryWashington Mystics won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 164.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 165.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 166.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 167.5Under won
- Washington Mystics vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 168.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.